FXUS63 KFGF 261121 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 621 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering flurries and light wintry mix thru mid morning, but precipitation chances diminishing. - Drying fuels may intermittently support low end fire danger this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026 Update aviation discussion. UPDATE Issued at 508 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026 Based on diminishing radar returns cancelled the winter weather advisory as the threat for additional freezing rain has diminished. UPDATE Issued at 417 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026 Coord with BIS and added flurries to northeast ND and far NW MN thru mid morning. Most areas along the border from Bottineau to Warroad 5-10SM in light snow. UPDATE Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026 Area of light to moderate freezing rain moved thru the Fargo area from Valley City and extended into Trail, Steele and Griggs. It has now diminished as it moved east quickly thru Detroit Lakes where temperatures are above freezing. Some lighter returns on radar yet west of Fargo and with temps slowly dropping still will hold on to advisory that was issued around 2 am. Road temps suggest above 32F but was concernred area of moderate freezing rain for a time to give icy conditions to non-treated surface streets, rural highways and such. With precipitation moving so quickly east may well be able to cancel advisory early. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026 ...Synopsis... Fast, near zonal flow continues over the Northern Plains, with several weak shortwaves moving through. One of the shortwaves moves through Manitoba and Ontario tonight, helping to push the cold front currently over southern portions of the CWA the rest of the way through. Another weak shortwave moving from Saskatchewan into the northern Red River Valley Thursday into Thursday night will bring reinforcing shot of cold air. Northwest to westerly flow and rising heights return for the weekend as the main trough moves off to the east. Near zonal flow for Monday as the upper flow starts to transition, with most of the ensemble members showing southwesterly flow Tuesday. Still some spread in the ensemble solutions as to how exactly the main upper trough comes into the Rockies or Plains by mid- week, but overall looking like an active pattern with above average temperatures. ...Wintry mix tonight and tomorrow morning... Winds have shifted to the north or northwest for all but far southeastern portions of the CWA. While there has been temperatures getting into the 60s in portions of southeastern ND and west central MN, much of our northern tier has stayed in the 30s or even upper 20s thanks to clouds and continued cold advection. The colder air will move more firmly in place tonight, and many areas will be below freezing. Another shortwave will bring some precipitation chances starting this evening, mostly along and south of Highway 200. Should start out as rain as even with the cold air advection the surface and road temps will take a while to cool down across the south. But as the lower levels and then the warm layer aloft start to cool, could see a wintry mix of freezing rain or snow in some areas. NBM has around a 30 percent chance for some light icing. It is uncertain how widespread impacts will be given the currently very warm road temperatures are in most of our counties. At this point, not confident enough in advisory level impacts for any headlines, but will continue to monitor. ...Fire weather concerns over the weekend... After our cool down during the later part of the work week, temperatures start to recover and will be back above average for the weekend. While southerly winds will also bring some higher dew points in, they will not rise as fast as temperatures and afternoon RH values could be in the 25 to 30 percent range in some areas. At this point, winds do not seem like they will be high enough for critical fire weather conditions, but could get close. Will mention in the fire weather discussion but not other messaging. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026 Drier air working south today with improving cloud conditions with clearing anticipated north to south thru the day. Looks like midday going scattered along Hwy 2 and mid afternoon Fargo. Timing may be adjusted. North winds gusting over 25 kts within the valley today. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...Riddle