FXUS63 KBIS 240238
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
938 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures fluctuating between near to above normal through
  the week, with a brief below normal period on Thursday.

- Precipitation chances return Tuesday night through Thursday
  morning. Rain and snow is the main precipitation type.

- Intermittent breezy conditions this week, especially
  Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Quiet weather across the Northern Plains this evening. Weather
concerns tonight remain minimal, with lows falling into the 20s
most areas.

UPDATE
Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Modifications to the forecast for tonight were minor and mainly
blending latest observations to the hourly forecast. No weather
concerns for tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

A few showers remain possible in some eastern portions along a
weakly unstable warm front this afternoon. This evening through
tonight, a weak cold front moves in from north to south shifting
winds from southerly to eventually north northeasterly. This
front is expected to be mainly dry, with forecast overnight lows
remaining in the 20s. This front stalls about halfway across the
state for Tuesday bringing some cooler temperatures to the north
and central, with continued mild temperatures in the southwest.
A steady southerly wind will also be found on Tuesday. Zonal
flow aloft will bring abundant mid to high clouds as well for
Tuesday. Broad surface low begins to take shape Tuesday night
perhaps lifting the stalled front back north. This could provide
for some rain and snow showers in the north, while the
remainder of the area sees mild lows in the 30s to lower 40s.
Surface low then brings warming temperatures on Wednesday with
highs in the 50s and 60s for most areas. Low confidence remains
in the potential for elevated fire weather concerns for
Wednesday given the potential for some lower RH and increased
winds. However these increased winds may delay until passage of
another cold front later Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Along this front will also be chances for rain and snow through
the night, with minimal snow accumulations still expected.
Colder low temperatures may also move in Wednesday night,
especially in the north where lows could fall into the teens.

A breezy and cool post frontal day is then expected for
Thursday. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 20s and
30s with some lower 40s. For most areas this may be below normal
temperatures. A few lingering snow showers may also be found
Thursday, especially in the south. Clusters then continue to
build another large ride across the western US to the week into
this weekend. Depending how far inland this ridge builds will
influence how warm temperatures across the state get, thus the
NBM continues to have large spreads. Overall this ridge looks to
bring above normal temperatures for most areas, especially by
the end of the upcoming weekend. Chances for precipitation will
also be very low under this ridge. Surface high to our east
could keep a steady southerly flow through the upcoming weekend,
although currently there are not signals for strong winds. This
warm and dry pattern could also lead to low RH values,
especially in the southwest, through the weekend as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

VFR conditions expected through the 00Z forecast period, with
mainly mid to high clouds streaming aloft. Later tonight through
the day Tuesday, most sites then see a steady southeast wind
develop.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...NH