FXUS63 KFGF 170804 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 304 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Blowing/accumulating snow will bring travel impacts Tuesday. There is currently an 80 percent chance for advisory type impacts (1/2 mile visibility or less) due to blowing snow. - Freezing rain/drizzle may linger on the backside of the system into Wednesday extending the window for travel impacts but confidence on end timing remains low. && .UPDATE... Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026 Despite just issuing a Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow today there remains some uncertainty in the forecast. To start guidance is now showing the best FGEN slightly more displaced from the synoptic forcing leading to a lower potential for hourly snow rates nearing 1"/hr. Thinking they now cap out around 0.5"/hr, though when combined with a southerly 20-25 mph wind this should still be enough to achieve widespread 1/2sm visibility or lower. The key is where do these sustained winds and pockets of heavier snow rates most frequently overlap. The current thinking is higher SLR snow (15-25:1) early on before 18z in eastern ND along with a stronger 925mb jet the further north one goes will lead to the best chance for for widespread blowing snow (1/2sm or less) and occasional whiteouts (1/4sm or less). This is also the area that retains the most blowable snow pack at the moment so new snowfall greater than 2" may not be required to get widespread blowing snow today. The snow band then progresses east by noon into the Red River Valley with the 925mb jet and winds tracking with it, though winds seem to quickly diminish by 7pm hopefully ending any impactful blowing snow. The kicker is as snow ends the mid level profiles will be warming with weak WAA still present and perhaps enough to squeeze out some freezing drizzle in the evening and through the night. This will be something to monitor as it remains very low confidence. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 ...Synopsis... A highly amplified H5 pattern prevails this week with deep troughing across the Great Lakes and strong ridging in the western CONUS. In the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, a strong baroclinic zone divides the ridging and troughing as the overall pattern moves slowly east. A shortwave will traverse the baroclinic zone Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing accumulating snow, blowing snow, and a chance for freezing drizzle or light freezing rain. Temperatures rebound later Wednesday, with widespread 30s and 40s returning to most of the area. There is some uncertainty with regards to the areas with new snow cover, as stratus and/or fog could limit the upper extent of afternoon high temperatures. Further warming prevails Thursday through Sunday, with the warmest temps expected Friday, when southeast North Dakota could reach the lower 60s. ...Winter Impacts Tuesday into Wednesday Morning... Accumulating snow is expected Tuesday as a clipper traverses the baroclinic zone from northwest to southeast. At this time, there is generally good consensus regarding banding potential and relatively strong FGen on the east and northeast side of the trough. Over the last 24 hours, there has been a slight change in the track; however, overall, the impact potential remains largely consistent for northeast North Dakota and the northern and central Red River Valley. Snow accumulations are expected to range from 1 to 3 inches (25th and 75th percentiles respectively). Gusty south winds up to 40 mph are expected to combine with falling snow and reduce visibility at times on Tuesday, especially in the Red River Valley and northeast North Dakota. As the system moves to the southeast, ridging builds into eastern North Dakota from west to east, increasing low level and mid level temps. This will allow a chance for freezing drizzle or light freezing rain as precipitation ends heading into Wednesday morning. At this time, there is an 80 percent chance for advisory conditions, with blowing snow, reduced visibility, and light freezing rain bringing potential travel impacts. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the early morning hours across eastern ND and northwest MN with dry surface high pressure in place. Low pressure deepens to the west of the region Tuesday, and a warm front will bring a large area of light to locally moderate snowfall across the region west to east after 12Z through Tuesday afternoon/early evening. Southerly flow increases with this system and winds occasionally gusting around 30kt could lead to additional blowing snow and reduced visibilities along and west of the Red River Valley (KGFK, KDVL, and KFAR). MVFR ceilings arrive behind the front, and there is still a low chance (20%) for a brief period of a light wintry mix of freezing rain/sleet as the main area of snow ends. Southerly winds gradually decrease after 00Z and shifts to the southwest and west behind the front in central ND where a LLJ may also bring a period of low level wind shear. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054. MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001-002-004-007. && $$ UPDATE...TT DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...DJR