ACUS11 KWNS 140206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140206
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-140430-

Mesoscale Discussion 2226
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0806 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Areas affected...much of southern Mississippi into southwest Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 140206Z - 140430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out near the warm
front from southern Mississippi into southwest Alabama through late
evening. A brief tornado or damaging gust would be possible.

DISCUSSION...A northeast/southwest oriented line of thunderstorms
currently extends from northwest AL and northern MS into far eastern
LA, with indications of stronger activity along the cold front and
approaching the warm front. This warm front separates the robust
moisture to the south with 70s F dewpoints, while north of there
into east-central MS and much of central AL, temperatures are cool
and in the 60s.

Meanwhile, southerly winds around 850 mb over 40 kt are forecast
through evening, which may yield some northward advancement of the
warm front. Low-level shear in this vicinity will also favor
rotation given a strong enough storm, with effective SRH of several
hundred m2/s2.

As such, the area will be monitored for additional development over
the warm sector, which could potentially interact with the higher
shear zone along and south of the warm front.

..Jewell/Hart.. 11/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   31428752 30968762 30698781 30518817 30498882 30978981
            31329023 31679021 31959004 32518972 32548913 32338835
            31868779 31428752