FXUS66 KMTR 141046 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 346 AM PDT Mon Oct 14 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Oct 14 2024 A slight warming trend bringing seasonal temperatures will continue through Tuesday before an incoming upper level low brings isolated rain chances Wednesday. Critical fire weather concerns are expected late week through the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Seasonal temperatures and sky cover are expected across the region as a weak short-wave ridge builds inland. Coastal drizzle this morning will be possible as moist conditions prevail giving way to mostly sunny conditions this afternoon, especially inland away from the coast. Temperatures will warm into the upper 70's to low 80's across the interior, the 70's inland away from the coast/bays, and mid to upper 60's to low 70's near the coast. Tonight, low temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 40's to low 50's for the interior and low-to-mid 50's elsewhere. Once again, coastal and favored upslope spots are likely to experience drizzle. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Heading into Tuesday, conditions will remain near seasonal averages. A stronger upper level low will push inland over the Pacific Northwest brining with it a weak frontal boundary down into our region. This will bring light precipitation to the North Bay with little to no precipitation south of the Golden Gate on Wednesday. However, probabilities remain low for "wetting rain" across even the North Bay which will have negligible effect on increasing fuel moisture across the region. This is a large shift from previous days when most of the region was expecting at least some rainfall. From previous forecaster: "The decrease in accumulating precipitation also brings us to our second concern: elevated fire weather concerns across the Bay Area and Central Coast beginning late Thursday through the weekend. Both the European and GFS models now show the upper level low continuing to strengthen and deepen as it moves eastward through California/Nevada before eventually becoming a cut-off low over the four corners region. Confidence is increasing that a classic fire weather pattern, an "inside slider", will develop and take place next weekend bringing widespread, gusty offshore winds across the Bay Area and Central Coast. At 850 mb late Thursday/early Friday, the GFS and Euro models are both showing gusts between at least 40 to 45 mph with the GFS model showing some potential for gusts close to 50 mph to develop. What does this translate to at the surface? At the surface gusts will generally be strongest across elevated terrain and mountain gaps/passes where peak gusts look to be between 35-40 mph currently. There is potential for stronger gusts to develop in the gaps and passes of the East Bay Hills where we may see 40+ mph gusts during this event. Forecasted sustained winds and wind gusts will continue to be refined as we continue to move closer to the Thursday/Friday timeframe. We will continue to monitor and provide updates on these fire weather concerns as they evolve over the course of this week. Residents of the Bay Area and the Central Coast should take precautions to avoid all activities that may result in wildfire spread/development next weekend. Remember: "One less spark, One less wildfire." && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 345 AM PDT Mon Oct 14 2024 A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR/LIFR, with clearing to VFR between 17-19Z. There is a chance for clearing to occur after 20Z, as models show a slower dissipation. Most terminals are expected to remain VFR after Monday afternoon, until the end of the TAF period, with the exception of KOAK, and Monterey Bay, where low stratus returns Monday night. Winds will build to breezy by Monday afternoon, before diminishing to moderate by Monday night. Vicinity of SFO...VFR, with a chance for IFR conditions until 16Z, but confidence is low. TEMPO group was included in TAFs to hint at the possibility for lower CIGs. VFR is expected to prevail for the remainder of the TAF period. Onshore winds will become breezy Monday afternoon, with chances of 17 knot winds. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR conditions with some reduced visibility over KSNS. Expect slow clearing Monday morning by 19Z, with a chance for clearing near 20Z for KSNS. Low confidence that KMRY will clear, as most models show a mix of MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions prevailing through the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 345 AM PDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Seas continue to build through the forecast period, becoming elevated Monday afternoon bringing hazardous conditions for the northern outer waters. Long period northwesterly swell of 13-17 seconds will result in elevated surf conditions through Wednesday. A strong upper- level low will bring widespread near- gale to gale force gusts beginning Thursday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 850 PM PDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Long period northwesterly swell of 13-17 seconds with wave heights approaching 10 feet will result in a moderate risk of sneaker waves across all Pacific Coast beaches through at least Wednesday. Large waves can sweep across the beach without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches. Beachgoers should always remember to observe the ocean for 20 minutes before relaxing near the water, keep your pets on a leash and away from the water, and never turn your back on the ocean. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...SO MARINE...SO Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea