FXUS62 KMHX 051134 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 734 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A mainly dry cold front move through the area today with high pressure building into the area tonight and Sunday. Another frontal passage on Monday will bring our next threat for precip to Eastern North Carolina. Swell from distant Hurricane Kirk will also bring marine and coastal impacts early next week. Strong high pressure and noticeably cooler air building into the area by mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 330 AM Saturday...Seeing quite a bit of high clouds with areas of STCU across the region this morning ahead of a mid- level shortwave and attendant cold front. This has limited radiational cooling to some extent, however many area across the coastal plain are at or near saturation so cannot rule out patchy light fog through daybreak. The frontal passage is expected to be dry as it pushes through this morning but sufficient low level moisture combined with steepening low level lapse rates that develop behind the front may be enough to bring a few light showers late this afternoon into the early evening hours as another weak shortwave moves across the area. The saturated layer is mainly confined to 925-800mb with very dry air in the mid and upper layers of the troposphere including the dendritic growth zone so don't expected much precip accumulation with a trace to a couple of hundredths of an inch at best. Temps will be near climo with mid to upper 70s along the OBX to low 80s inland. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... As of 345 AM Saturday...A few light showers may linger into mid evening as discussed in the near term discussion but otherwise expect dry conditions tonight as high pressure builds into the region. Skies become mainly clear after midnight which will bring good radiational cooling conditions and could see patchy to areas of fog and stratus developing late tonight. Lows expected to be around 60 inland to mid 60s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 0300 Saturday...High pressure late in weekend with a wetter front early next week bringing the next best chance of rain. Sunday...Dry forecast behind the weak front passing through today with skies clearing through the day as weak high pressure originating from the NW slides towards the coast. Seasonable temps with highs a degree or two either side of 80 for most. Around sunset, the SFC high will be sliding offshore, which will veer winds to become more Serly overnight, leading to a light WAA regime the second half of the overnight, keeps MinTs for mild, around 60 inland, mid 60s beaches. Early Next Week...Another front crosses through Monday, but this front is associated with a deeper upper level trough, and the column's moisture, while not anomalously high, will be greater than Saturday's front. Although greatest upper level support will be well to the N, there should be enough moisture convergence along the front to justify carrying at least SChc PoPs for this period to cover the possibility of very light rain for FROPA as consistently indicated by the GFS and Euro, but bizarrely omitted by the NBM. This update, have relegated any thunder mention to offshore over the Gulfstream where limited instability will be greatest. Mid to late week...The airmass behind this stronger early week front will be markedly cooler, mid70/low50 split, some sheltered spots inland may even see MinTs in the 40s by Wednesday morning. This strong ridging behind Monday's front is forecast to shunt any possible tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico to cross over Florida and then push out to sea over the Atlantic mid- week. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/... As of 7 AM Saturday...Pred VFR conditions expected through this evening though there will be a few opportunities for brief MVFR conditions. First, light fog is reducing vsbys to 3-5 mi across come inland locations but that will dissipate quickly this morning. Then from mid afternoon to mid evening we could see isolated showers as another weak mid-level shortwave push through which may bring brief MFVR cigs. Then, skies become mostly clear after midnight tonight with will allow for good radiational cooling conditions and several high res models indicating area of fog developing across the coastal plain. The NAM is also indicating stratus will advect in from the Atlantic but confidence in that occuring is low as it is the only model showing this attm. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 0300 Saturday...VFR flight cats expected to prevail in drier airmass outside of early morning fog potential. A stronger front crosses ENC early next week which will be our next best chance of rain and subVFR flight cats. VFR prevails in high pressure behind the front midweek. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/... As of 430 AM Saturday...A weak cold front will push across the waters this morning with high pressure building into the area tonight. Nly winds less than 15 kt early this morning will become NE around 10-20 kt this afternoon through tonight. Seas will continue around 4-5 ft across the northern and central waters with up to 6 ft across the outer central waters and will maintain the SCA between Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet. The southern waters seas will be around 2-4 ft building up to 5 ft across the outer waters this morning. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 0300 Saturday...NEerly 10-15kt through the weekend. SCA seas for central waters likely continue through at least Monday. Winds flip around to become SWerly late Sun ahead of the next front to pass through area waters early next week, currently forecasting SWerly 10-20kt S of the front, Nerly 10-15kt N of it. Strong long period swell from distant Hurricane Kirk begins arriving late tonight, peaking early next week. Current forecast has peak swell on the order of 7ft@16sec. In addition to this swell, a potential tropical system is forecast to cross Florida from the Gulf to reach the Atlantic middle of next week, this system will also generate some shorter period, Serly swell on top of the weakening longer period swell from Kirk. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 4 AM Saturday...Minor coastal flooding will be possible around the times of high tide during the next few days as water levels remain elevated, with inundation up to one foot for areas along the coast and soundside areas adjacent to the Pamlico Sound. In addition to this as we get into early next week, long period swell from distant Hurricane Kirk will arrive along our shores and bring an increased risk for elevated rip currents, dangerous surf, and ocean overwash especially across the more vulnerable areas and areas where the dunes have been compromised along the Outer Banks and Crystal Coast. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-203- 205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...CEB AVIATION...SK/CEB MARINE...SK/CEB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX