FXUS66 KMFR 210902 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 202 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .DISCUSSION...Overall quiet conditions are expected over the next several days, with upper level ridging overhead, a thermal trough along the coast, and with a few exceptions, generally seasonable weather across the region. With the ridge in control, the area will remain dry until the mid-to-late next week, when the next front is due to pass through the area. Until then, expect warm afternoons, cool nights, and typical afternoon breezes. Along the immediate coast, the thermal trough will continue to produce gusty north winds, with occasional periods of fog and/or low clouds as the marine layer make periodic inland pushes. These clouds and fog will stay west of the coastal mountains, however, as the thermal trough will also result in a general dry, east wind flow that will scour out much of the moisture and keep the marine layer at bay. This same wind is likely to produce an ongoing Chetco Effect as well, keeping temperatures warmer than normal along the south coast near Brookings, Inland, temperatures will remain around or just above normal for this time of year, which means the first day of Fall on Sunday will feel like a typical day in mid-September. Fall will not arrive for good, however, when temperatures jump back up to summertime values Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper level ridge axis amplifies and passes overhead, making those days feel more like late July or early August. As mentioned above, this dry pattern may change a bit with the arrival of a front Wednesday into Thursday, and another Thursday night into Friday. These systems appear pretty weak in the latest model suites, with little in the way of moisture content, and with much of the energy well to our north. So, other than some light rain possible along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin, along with increased winds over the ridges and across the East Side, the passage of the systems look like they will do little more than bring temperatures back down to more seasonable values as we head into next weekend. -BPN && .AVIATION...21/12Z TAFS...VFR will prevail area wide for the next 24 hours due to low-level offshore winds west of the Cascades and a drying air mass. Patchy shallow fog is possible in the deeper valleys after midnight tonight through sunrise Saturday, but will dissipate during Saturday morning. Gusty north winds (~30kt) are expected at North Bend again Saturday afternoon/evening. -Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM Saturday, September 21, 2024...A thermal trough and associated pressure gradient along/near the coast will remain in place through early next week; as a result, strong northerly winds and very steep seas are expected south of Port Orford. Elsewhere, steep seas and advisory strength northerly winds are expected north of Port Orford through today. The Small Craft will be extended to all waters tonight, and this continues until the steep seas focus south of Coos Bay 5 AM Sunday. The thermal trough is forecast to move inland with weakening winds and easing seas late Tuesday into Wednesday. This will result in relatively calm seas and light wind speeds through at least Friday. -Guerrero/Spilde && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Sunday for ORZ029>031. CA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356- 376. && $$