FXUS62 KILM 180137 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 937 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Weakening low pressure will linger west of the area before slowly moving northeast. Warm conditions with daily low chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected Wed. A weak cold front accompanied with scattered convection will bring more seasonable temperatures in its wake near the end of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. && .UPDATE... Sfc pg relaxed resulting in winds decoupling over a good portion of the FA. May see a land breeze (NW) near the coast if the broken blanket of stratocu and altocu mainly remains remains west of the I-95 corridor. The extent of these cloud decks eastward, even as they partially scour out, will help keep fog from becoming too widespread or from vsby dropping to low from the fog. Min temps look aok, just tweaks to the hourly T and TD based on latest obs and trends. The Minor coastal flooding along the immediate NC and SC Coasts cancelled early due to readings having breached thresholds for a slightly shorter time period than anticipated. The lower Cape Fear river minor flooding to expire at 1 am Wed. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The area remains in the dry slot of former PTC8 through the period as the system will move very little. The gradient is very weak and the stage may be set for a little fog, though most guidance hints that it's only MVFR and only of aviation concerns. With the upper low still to our west on Wednesday a few spokes of vorticity will rotate through the area, mainly western zones. Guidance trended up a bit with POPs but felt that values above 40 seemed too high so capped values there given the dry air evident in WV imagery. Also seeing some pretty paltry lapse rates so wouldn't be surprised if thunder becomes the exception and not the rule despite the afternoon warming a few degrees above climo. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A closed mid-level low will dissipate into a trough through the period with enhanced vorticity in its vicinity, weak surface low pressure migrating northeast. PWATs will stick above 1.5" with decent instability in the afternoon as the low moves overhead. At the same time, a sea breeze will be moving inland from the coast, which should enhance rain chances primarily west of the coast. Drier air will start to arrive Thursday night as flow becomes northeasterly. Lows will be in the mid 60s with highs in the lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The trough looks to stall to our NE where higher moisture and enhanced vorticity will linger. The majority of rain, should there be any, should stay offshore, but the shortwaves moving around the trough axis could bring low rain chances towards the coast through the long term period. Highs in the low 80s and lower 70s with lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR to dominate the evening. However during the pre- dawn Wed hrs, up thru 13Z Wed, a threat for MVFR ground fog mainly across terminals inland. An altocu and cirrus cloud decks may reach and affect the terminals, especially inland, that could delay or reduce, the amount and intensity of the ground fog. Looking at VFR during the day WEd except for the possibility of convection reaching the inland terminals toward the end of the fcst period. This associated with an approaching vort lobe rotating around the slowly lifting closed mid level low. Will include a PROB30 for the 2 inland terminals to account for this convective possibility. Generally, winds becoming nearly calm overnight, except NW 4 kt or less at the coastal terminals by daybreak Wed. W to NW 5 kt or less will become S-SW 5 to 9 kt by Wed aftn. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR with exceptions. CFP slated for Thu could result in periodic MVFR in pcpn or ceilings. MVFR/IFR possible each morning through Fri from fog and/or low stratus. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday...A very light gradient left behind in the wake of PTC8 making for gentle SW breeze across the waters. Seas will continue to abate from the stirring up of the cyclone both due to the light winds and the abating E swell energy from the system. Wednesday Night through Sunday...Southerly flow will become stronger and NE through Thursday, but expected to stay sub-SCA at this time. Waveheights will be 2-4 ft with a dominant easterly 9-10 second swell and an increasing NE wind wave. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High astronomical tides, excessive rainfall and lingering swell from the prolonged onshore winds will lead to coastal flooding with the morning high tides along the southeastern NC coast and the lower Cape Fear River around and south of Wilmington. Water levels should remain in the minor category and another round of advisories is likely for this evening's high tides, with the coast of northeast SC likely being impacted this evening. Other - Rip Currents: Continued improving surf conditions affecting all beaches for Wed. A slowly decaying easterly swell at 9+ second periods will affect local beaches. However, for the Pender and New Hanover County Beaches, the surf will remain conducive for a Moderate rip Current Risk for Wed, especially in that 4 hr window centered around low tide. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LEW UPDATE...DCH NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...LEW LONG TERM...LEW AVIATION...DCH MARINE...MBB/LEW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JLB/DCH