FXUS62 KILM 172022 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 422 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Weakening low pressure will linger west of the area before slowly moving northeast, drier air building in by Tuesday. Warm conditions with daily low chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected through midweek. A weak cold front will bring more seasonable temperatures near the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The area remains in the dry slot of former PTC8 through the period as the system will move very little. The gradient is very weak and the stage may be set for a little fog, though most guidance hints that it's only MVFR and only of aviation concerns. With the upper low still to our west on Wednesday a few spokes of vorticity will rotate through the area, mainly western zones. Guidance trended up a bit with POPs but felt that values above 40 seemed too high so capped values there given the dry air evident in WV imagery. Also seeing some pretty paltry lapse rates so wouldn't be surprised if thunder becomes the exception and not the rule despite the afternoon warming a few degrees above climo. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A closed mid-level low will dissipate into a trough through the period with enhanced vorticity in its vicinity, weak surface low pressure migrating northeast. PWATs will stick above 1.5" with decent instability in the afternoon as the low moves overhead. At the same time, a sea breeze will be moving inland from the coast, which should enhance rain chances primarily west of the coast. Drier air will start to arrive Thursday night as flow becomes northeasterly. Lows will be in the mid 60s with highs in the lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The trough looks to stall to our NE where higher moisture and enhanced vorticity will linger. The majority of rain, should there be any, should stay offshore, but the shortwaves moving around the trough axis could bring low rain chances towards the coast through the long term period. Highs in the low 80s and lower 70s with lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Clouds assoc with recent PTC8 will no longer be a CIG in LBT shortly. VFR thereafter until some MVFR fog develops during the predawn hours. The lower end of the vsbys will be at inland terminals LBT and FLO. Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR possible each morning through Friday. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday...A very light gradient left behind in the wake of PTC8 making for gentle SW breeze across the waters. Seas will continue to abate from the stirring up of the cyclone both due to the light winds and the abating E swell energy from the system. Wednesday Night through Sunday...Southerly flow will become stronger and NE through Thursday, but expected to stay sub-SCA at this time. Waveheights will be 2-4 ft with a dominant easterly 9-10 second swell and an increasing NE wind wave. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High astronomical tides, excessive rainfall and lingering swell from the prolonged onshore winds will lead to coastal flooding with the morning high tides along the southeastern NC coast and the lower Cape Fear River around and south of Wilmington. Water levels should remain in the minor category and another round of advisories is likely for this evening's high tides, with the coast of northeast SC likely being impacted this evening. Other - Rip Currents: Lingering easterly swell will remain conducive to cause a high risk of rip currents for all beaches through today. Diminishing winds will become south to southwest today, helping to subside the strong longshore currents of the past few days. Decreasing swells will lead to an overall decrease in rip current risk through midweek. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ107. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...LEW LONG TERM...LEW AVIATION...MBB MARINE...MBB/LEW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...