FXUS62 KILM 132343 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 743 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather will continue through early next week as we continue to monitor the development of low pressure off the coast this weekend into early next week. && .UPDATE... No significant changes to the forecast other than to remove thunder as there hasn't been a detected strike for some time. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure ridging into the area from the north and slowly developing low pressure along a front off the coast, will keep moist air in place over the area through the forecast period. This will result in abundant cloudiness and scattered showers through the period, especially with daytime heating. Lows tonight will be within a couple degrees of 70, Highs Saturday will reach the lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Surface wedge inland remains in place through Sunday, while mid level ridge from the north strengthens just a bit. Rain chances, mainly light showers, are pretty much limited to coastal counties Saturday night and Sunday with chances decreasing inland as subsidence increases. Lows in the upper 60s Saturday night warm to low 80s Sunday afternoon. Low pressure begins to deepen somewhere offshore Sunday, tightening the pressure gradient between it and the inland high pressure wedge. Current forecast has northeast wind gusts of 25-30 mph Sunday afternoon, with higher gusts along the beaches. Low temps Sunday night in the mid to upper 60s.&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The main feature in the long term, and the source of uncertainty in the forecast, is the future of the offshore low pressure. The National Hurricane Center continues to highlight the low for potential tropical or subtropical development early next week as the system approach the Carolinas coast. 12z global models (GFS/ECM) show the low moving onshore near Cape Fear late Monday/Monday night, which, similar to past few days, continues to change run to run. Ensembles and some regional models show a wide range of possible solutions, from the low staying well offshore or approaching the coast as a fairly weak low/trough. All in all, there will be a low pressure system nearby for the start of the week that will likely bring increased rain chances to our area Monday into (at least) early Tuesday, with potential for a 2+ inches of rain depending on position, and perhaps breezy conditions. If the low moves inland, it looks to either dissipate by midweek or linger somewhere along the East Coast through end of the week. With upper low meandering nearby, daily chance pops remain in the forecast each day of next week with afternoon thunder chances increasing Wednesday onward. Highs warm to near normal middle of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Coastal and to an extent inland areas will remain inundated with moisture through the period. MVFR conditions are expected for the most part with some IFR possible along the coast early morning hours. Extended Outlook... High chances for rain and MVFR/IFR conditions continue through early next week. && .MARINE... Through Saturday... E to NE winds of 15 to 25 KT with higher gusts will become more northeasterly by Saturday. Seas will build to 5 to 7 FT on the open waters by Saturday. Saturday Night through Wednesday...Low pressure offshore will continue to develop Sunday and may approach the Cape Fear coastline late Monday, though still a fair bit of uncertainty with track and strength of the low early next week. Regardless of development, northeasterly winds and seas remain elevated through Monday night over the coastal waters. Winds will be strongest Sunday with tight pressure gradient between offshore low and high pressure wedge inland, and gale force gusts may be possible Sunday afternoon. Seas 6-8 ft Saturday night increase to 7-9 ft Sunday night with the building 10 sec E swell. Winds and seas slowly improve on Monday, though this will largely be dependent on the evolution of the low system. Winds around 10 kts become a bit more variable on Wednesday as pressure pattern becomes a bit disorganized, with seas 4-6 ft early Tuesday lowering to 3-4 ft by Wednesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: There will be a High risk of rip currents for east-facing beaches north of Cape Fear. A Moderate risk of rip currents will be in effect for all other beaches. In addition, the longshore current will be strong for east-facing beaches and moderate for Brunswick County beaches to strong due to enhanced northeast winds and building easterly swell. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM/31 UPDATE...SHK NEAR TERM...31 SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...SHK MARINE...ILM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...