FXUS65 KGGW 010833
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
233 AM MDT Sun Sep 1 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:
 - Temperatures trend upward Sunday through Tuesday. Then moderate
   out mid-week.

 - Dry conditions through Tuesday. Then isolated chances for
   showers late in the week.


WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A ridge over the western third of the CONUS will pass across the
area bringing a warming trend and then exit late Tuesday. A
smaller trough arrives from the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. However, pacific moisture with this
passage appears to be lacking. Only leading to slight chance for
isolated showers with the passage. At the same time, a ridge will
rebuild into the Pacific Northwest behind it and begin having an
affect on northeast Montana Friday, warming conditions again.
This effect should last into Monday of next week.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
No significant deviations have occured from NBM grids.

Confidence in the forecast past about Thursday night onward ticks
down rapidly as ensembles have trouble resolving how fast the
exiting trough and entering ridge move across the area. While
there is still a warm up, this has lead to quite a wide range of
temperatures possibilities going into the weekend with GFS and
Canadian members trending cold while EC members trend warmer.


&&

.AVIATION...
LAST UPDATED: 0730Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: Skies will be dry and FEW to SKC through the cycle.

SFC WIND: SE at 10 kts or less this morning. Increasing to 10 to
20 this afternoon through the evening. Becoming light and
variable after midnight.

GAH


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.


&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow