FXUS63 KEAX 012307
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
607 PM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and cool conditions expected the next few days with Canadian
high pressure in control.

- Unfocused chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon/evening.

- Cooler conditions return for the weekend, though how much
  cooling remains a question.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024

Canadian high pressure centered over eastern South Dakota as of 19Z
is expected to remain across the Upper Midwest leading to below
normal temperatures over the next few days.  As surface ridge shifts
east, winds will turn clockwise with time eventually taking on more
of a southerly component on Wednesday leading to warming conditions.

Upper ridge across the western US strengthens Wednesday into the
weekend as a trough deepens across the Great Lakes region.  A phased
wave with this deepening trough moves into the region on Thursday.
Mid level lapse rates steepen enough with this wave to create
conditional threat for storms on Thursday, though low level moisture
is somewhat limited with the Gulf shut off. Shear increases with
this wave, potentially into the 30-35 knot range for 0-6 kn bulk
shear. The broad unfocused forcing has lead to some 20 percent
chance POPs in the forecast, with a little greater chances across
northern Missouri closer to the main mid level wave.

Cold front on the back side of this wave will lead to cold air
advection and cooler conditions returning to the region next
weekend.  Models are in disagreement with how deep the upper trough
digs across the Great Lakes, bringing into question how strong the
cooling will be next weekend.  Right now, ensemble is suggesting
well below temperatures with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows
upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with northeast
winds becoming easterly tomorrow and all generally less than
10kts. With a dry atmosphere, clear skies are expected.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...CDB