FXUS63 KEAX 011726
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1226 PM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Some fog this morning, mainly across southern CWA (central
  Missouri and south) and river valleys.

* Pleasant weather conditions for remainder of holiday weekend and
  into the short work week. Near to below normal highs - mid 70s to
  80s.

* Shower/storm chances mid-late week, but generally 20 percent
  or less.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 424 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024

Abundantly clear skies prevail over the area early this morning as
surface high pressure continues to ooze into the region from the
Canadian and Northern Plains. With light winds in place, efficient
radiational cooling has allowed temperatures to fall into the upper
50s and low 60s. On GOES Nighttime Microphysics RGB, fog development
can be seen in typically prone areas, river valleys, as well as
along/near lingering cloud cover and better low-level moisture over
areas south of roughly Highway 50. In the immediate term, fog will
be the primary concern, if any, but should quickly burn off this
morning with diurnal mixing and continued dry air advection. This
will give way to what will be a largely pleasant day with 50s/lower
60s dew points and high pressure dominating sensible weather
conditions. Southern areas of the CWA will remain on the warm side
with highs to near 90 deg F as 850mb temps linger in the mid-teens
deg C. Northern areas will more readily reap the benefits of the
CAA with expected highs in the mid to upper 70s.

For Labor Day, surface high pressure influence will continue to
slink down into the region, allowing drier air and cool
conditions to continue to advect in. While some upper level
cloud cover may move in through the day, it will be abundantly
difficult to complain about the overall conditions with highs
predominantly in the 70s and dew points in the 50s. A great way
to usher out summer and ring in climatological fall.

Into the short work week, said surface high to pass north of the
area and in conjunction with broad upper level ridging will keep
conditions largely quiet. A weak upper level disturbance remains
anticipated to drift E/NE out of northern Mexico and Texas mid-week,
but does not appear to carry much risk for measurable precipitation
within the CWA as NBM probabilities of measurable rain Wednesday
into first half of Thursday are <10 percent. By latter portions of
Thursday and rounding out the work week, a longwave trough will dig
into and through central CONUS. However, chances for precipitation
over the CWA remain around 20% or less due to timing/evolution
discrepancies as well as a lack of moisture. Temperatures will
rebound some Wednesday/Thursday with return of southerly winds,
but largely limited to the mid 80s. Confidence in temperatures
decreases significantly by Friday and into next weekend with NBM
spreads increasing to 6 to 10 degrees or more, but overall
signal is for near to below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024

VFR conditions through the period with light northeast winds
turning clockwise with time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...BT