FXUS63 KEAX 010456
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1156 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog likely tonight, mainly south of Highway 50. Patchy
  valley fog possible further north.

- Dry weather expected through at least the middle of next week.

- Temperatures will generally be within several degrees of
  seasonal normals for highs through the forecast and slightly
  cooler than normal for lows for the first half of the
  forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024

Drier and cooler conditions are working into the region with a weak
high pressure area sinking southward. That high pressure area is
slowly pushing the surface further south and latest subjective
surface analysis shows the front is south of the forecast area and
situated from northwest Arkansas through southern Missouri.
With a broad frontal zone though, dewpoints remain in the middle
to upper 60s across our southern zones. With boundary layer
moisture slow to diminish, crossover temperatures in our south
will likely be in the mid to upper 60s. With that area cooling
into the lower 60s, to even the upper 50s in sheltered areas, it
sets the stage for fog development with 5-10 degrees of
crossover between overnight lows and dewpoints from the warmest
part of today. This may be offset to some extent by dry
advection, limiting higher potential for fog. Given that, have
mentioned primarily patchy fog across the southern half of the
forecast area. Fog could be thicker in sheltered areas like
river/stream valleys. The HREF and SREF probabilities of
visibility less than 1 mile, in the southern half of the
forecast area, is generally less than 10%. So the signal is
there but confidence just isn't high given the potential for
drier air to offset the crossover temperature.

Most of the remainder of the forecast looks dry with the exception
of mid to late next week when there is some potential for
precipitation. And even then the signal looks mixed at best.
Ensemble clusters show this variability fairly well. While
there is a signal of strong upper trough over the northern US
starting mid to late next week, this varies in intensity and
location by 00Z Friday. Roughly a quarter of the members
suggest the trough axis will be over the northern Plains/ Upper
Midwest and another quarter with the trough axis over the
northeastern US at the same time. Still, another quarter of the
members splits this difference. The end result is that there is
little confidence in the later portions of the forecast, at this
point, and the low PoPs depicted by the NBM reflect this
variability in the guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024

VFR conditions are expected to last for the duration of the TAF
period for all terminals except KSTJ. Limited visibilities at KSTJ,
due to fog, are expected to last for a few hours before clearing out
as daytime heating begins. For all terminals, winds are anticipated
to stay weak and out of the north until this afternoon. An
occasional gust to 20 knots will be possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Collier