FXUS66 KLOX 272011 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 111 PM PDT Tue Aug 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS...27/233 AM. The week ahead will feature minimal day to day changes for the region weather-wise. The coasts will experience night through morning low clouds and fog, but otherwise skies will be clear. Meanwhile, inland areas will see a slight cool- down through Wednesday and then a slight warmup that will continue through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...27/110 PM. Exceptionally quiet weather will likely prevail through at least Friday with minimal day to day changes in night to morning low cloud extent and timing, temperatures and winds. All of which are very benign with the possible exception of patchy dense fog focused this evening along the Central Coast. Weak onshore flow through this period will maintain seasonable temperatures through the region with highs ranging from the 70s near the coast to 90s warmer coastal valleys to interior with downtown Los Angeles sticking near the mid 80s. A weak monsoon push focused east of Los Angeles County is possible as early as Thursday or Friday with a few afternoon build ups or debris high clouds possible across the Los Angeles County mountains and desert during this time frame. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...27/110 PM. High confidence in quiet weather continuing for most areas through at least early next week and likely beyond. A weak trough passing to the north may be close enough to kick up near advisory level Sundowners west of Goleta and probably just shy of advisory levels for the Antelope Valley and foothills beginning this weekend. Associated offshore trends from the north may warma coastal valleys and the Santa Barbara South coast by several degrees, but likely well shy of any significant heat impacts. Heat may continue to build towards the coast for the middle to end of next week as a ridge builds across the Intermountain West potentially weakening or shutting down the onshore gradients, which deliver the cooling effects from natures air conditioning, the Pacific Ocean. The net result could be daytime temperatures warming to the 80-90 degree range for coastal areas away from the immediate coast and 90-100+ elsewhere with moderate heat impacts possible during this stretch. The pattern may become favorable for a push of monsoon moisture at times as well. && .AVIATION...27/1738Z. At 1626Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 1000 feet deep. The top of the inversion was near 3200 feet with a temp of 22 C. High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KPMD, KWJF, KBUR and KVNY. There is a 20% chc of IFR-LIFR cigs/vsbys between 12Z and 15Z at KBUR/KVNY. Arrival of cigs may be off +/- 4 hrs from current fcst. Moderate confidence in LA county coastal TAFs. 10% chance of LIFR cigs between 08Z and 15Z at KLAX and KSMO. 20% chance KLGB remains MVFR-VFR thru the period. Arrival of cigs may be off +/- 4 hrs from current fcst. Low confidence in remaining coastal TAFs. LIFR-IFR conds expected at all remaining coastal sites, but minimum flight cat may be off by one cat at any time once cigs arrive. There is a chance that KSBP (20%), KSBA (30%), KOXR (30%), and KCMA (30%) remain IFR or higher throughout the period. Arrival/dissipation of cigs may be off +/- 4 hrs from current fcst. KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. 30% chance cigs arrive from 04Z-08Z between 005-010 feet. There is a 10% chance of OVC004 from 08Z to 15Z. No significant east wind component expected. KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 20% chance for IFR- LIFR cigs/vsbys between 12Z and 15Z. && .MARINE...27/1255 PM. In the Outer Waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, high confidence in the forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conds are not expected thru Fri morning. Moderate confidence in SCA level winds in the southern two zones from Pt Sal to San Nicolas island picking up Fri afternoon thru evening. Beginning Sat afternoon, high confidence in SCA level winds in the two southern zones thru at least Sunday night, and moderate confidence in the northern zone from Pt Sal to Pt Piedras Blancas to reach SCA winds Sat afternoon thru Sun night. In the nearshore waters off the Central Coast, high confidence in the forecast. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels thru Sat morning. Low to moderate confidence in SCA winds returning in the afternoon/evening hours Sat and Sun. In the Santa Barbara Channel, high confidence in the forecast. SCA level winds are not expected thru Friday morning. There is a 20-30% chance of SCA level gusts Fri afternoon thru evening in the Western Portion of the channel, and a better chance of SCA winds in the Western Portion Sat and Sun afternoon/eve. High confidence in conds remaining below SCA level in the Eastern Portion of the channel. In the inner waters off the L.A. and Orange County coasts, high confidence that conds will remain below SCA levels thru Sun. Due to a shallow marine layer, patchy dense fog with visibilities of less than 1 NM will affect most of the waters thru tomorrow morning. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Munroe AVIATION...Lewis MARINE...Lewis SYNOPSIS...MW/Brotherton weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox