ACUS11 KWNS 272216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272216
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-280015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2019
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Areas affected...Extreme northeast KS into central/northern MO and
western IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 272216Z - 280015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts and hail are possible into early
evening.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed from
south/southeast of Kansas City into northern MO. The environment
across this region is quite warm, moist, and unstable, with MLCAPE
of 2500-4000 J/kg in place. However, deep-layer flow and vertical
shear are generally weak, which should tend to limit storm
organization.

Given the favorable instability and rather steep low/midlevel lapse
rates, the strongest updrafts could briefly pose some hail threat,
though localized downbursts may become the most prominent hazard
with time. This isolated severe threat may persist into early
evening.

..Dean/Gleason.. 08/27/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39479490 40309368 40729288 40199108 40189091 39589006
            39008998 38459021 38219179 38239303 38269453 38969515
            39479490