ACUS11 KWNS 272212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272211
PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-272315-

Mesoscale Discussion 2018
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Areas affected...portions of northern Ohio into extreme northwestern
Pennsylvania and extreme southwestern New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 272211Z - 272315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat should increase over the next few hours
as an organized line of strong to severe thunderstorms approaches.
Damaging gusts are the primary concern. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
may be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...A persistent elongated convective system, with a
history of strong to severe wind gusts, continues to rapidly
propagate southeastward due to a surging cold pool, delineated by
-20 F observed surface temperature changes. Surface
temperatures/dewpoints preceding the convective system have been in
the lower 90s/lower 70s F, contributing to 2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE
(when considering 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates). However, surface
temperatures/dewpoints and mid-level lapse rates decrease with
east-southeastward extent, so questions remain how profound the
severe threat will become after the convective system crosses Lake
Erie. Nonetheless, considerable momentum associated with the cold
pool suggests that at least some organized damaging wind threat
should persist as storms move ashore. Furthermore, the lack of
friction over the water surface may allow for the generation of
considerable kinematic momentum, with particularly strong/damaging
gusts likely along the Lake Erie shoreline.

With an appreciable threat of strong/damaging gusts evident, a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed soon.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 08/27/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...

LAT...LON   42007920 41547961 41128048 40848192 40828290 41068354
            41478378 41728368 41688330 41808144 42428002 42407932
            42197920 42007920