ACUS03 KWNS 270719
SWODY3
SPC AC 270718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS...AND FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms will be possible over portions of
Virginia and the Carolinas, and across parts of the Upper
Mississippi Valley/Upper Midwest into the central Plains on
Thursday.

...Synopsis...
As an upper trough moves out of the Northeast and into the northern
Atlantic, a surface cold front is forecast to backdoor southward
across southern Virginia and the Carolinas with time.  Meanwhile, an
upstream mid/upper-level trough will move across the Canadian
Prairie and Plains states through the period.  Accompanying this
trough, a surface cold front will shift eastward/southeastward with
time, and should arc from the Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity
south-southwestward and then west-southwestward to the southeastern
Colorado area by Friday morning.

...Southern Virginia to northern South Carolina...
As a trailing cold front shifts southward across the Mid-Atlantic
region and eventually into the Carolinas, daytime heating will
support moderate destabilization across parts of southern Virginia
and into the Carolinas.  While a gradual increase in large-scale
upper ridging will be underway in the wake of the departing upper
trough, isolated storm development will be possible during the
afternoon, near the sagging front and over the higher terrain.
Though flow aloft will remain weak, weak veering with height may
combine with ample mixed-layer CAPE to support a few stronger
storms, and accompanying, marginal severe risk locally.  Risk should
diminish by early evening, as storms diurnally decrease.

...Minnesota to northern Kansas...
Moderate afternoon destabilization is forecast ahead of the
advancing cold front across the Upper Midwest, aided by ample
daytime heating.  While the strongest flow aloft should remain to
the cool side of the boundary, ample shear atop the frontal zone
should support isolated stronger storms.  As such, attendant risks
for large hail and damaging gusts will accompany the most vigorous
updrafts, into the evening hours.

A few stronger storms may develop southwestward along the front into
the central Plains, where weaker instability/shear are expected.
Still, marginal hail and a locally strong gust or two cannot be
ruled out into the early evening hours.

..Goss.. 08/27/2024

$$