ACUS11 KWNS 270002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270001
SDZ000-NEZ000-270130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2005
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0701 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024

Areas affected...Southwest/south-central SD into
northwest/north-central NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 650...

Valid 270001Z - 270130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 650
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe gusts, hail, and possibly a tornado
will continue eastward through the evening.

DISCUSSION...A QLCS with embedded supercell structures has produced
occasional severe wind and hail reports as it moves eastward. Recent
VWP data from KUDX suggests the presence of a rear-inflow jet, and a
combination of sufficient instability and rather strong deep-layer
shear will help to maintain this QLCS as it moves eastward this
evening. Embedded supercells will remain possible along the southern
flank of the QLCS, with some additional development possible into
northwest/north-central NE.

The threat for severe gusts will continue to accompany this QLCS as
it moves eastward this evening, along with a threat of hail and
possibly a tornado with any embedded supercells. The northern extent
of the severe threat into central SD remains in question, due to
cooler/more-stable conditions and stronger MLCINH in the wake of an
outflow-reinforced surface front. This renders the need for a watch
north of WW 650 uncertain, though some threat for strong to locally
severe gusts cannot be ruled out into central SD, given the
relatively organized nature of the QLCS.

..Dean/Gleason.. 08/27/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   44380217 44210079 44110016 43879946 43449914 42909923
            42569948 42259979 42200081 42290194 42510254 42720257
            43370230 44380217