FXUS62 KMHX 261121 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 721 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure shifts offshore today, allowing for southerly flow and steadily increasing temperatures and dewpoints through the work week. The next front will approach the region Thursday, and bring more unsettled conditions as it briefly stalls over the area through Friday. The front lifts back north this weekend with high pressure rebuilding. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 700 AM Monday...Stalled frontal boundary remains offshore, and ridging axis to our west will shift eastward and eventually offshore through the day, pushing the stationary boundary to our east to shift further offshore. Fog is impacting portions of the coastal plain, although most impactful fog has set up just west of Pitt and Greene counties outside of the CWA. Fog will linger until 8-9AM, and we should be in the clear after that. DFA is not needed with obs and webcams not suggesting widespread fog of 1/4 mi vis or less. Outside of the fog threat which will soon end, isolated showers are moving westward towards the coast from the stalled boundary offshore. These showers will struggle to reach land, but a few errant showers are possible through the morning along the coast (primarily Cape Hatteras south). Lows this morning are in the mid 60s inland, low 70s for beaches. Through the day today the sfc ridging will move eastward through the CWA, eventually setting up offshore tonight. As a result winds will remain light and veer to become S/SE'rly by the evening. Cloud cover is likely to remain scattered at best, as synoptic scale subsidence prevails. Highs today are in the upper 80s inland, low 80s for beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... As of 215 AM Monday...Mid level troughing moves through western portions of the CWA overnight, with an influx of low and mid level moisture with it. This could result in isolated to scattered light showers or drizzle advecting in from the north, generally east of hwy 17. QPF will remain below 0.10" through the night as moisture layer is not deep enough for impactful precip totals. Despite sfc ridge shifting offshore, winds will remain light to calm, and sky cover will be minimal along and west of hwy 17, allowing for fog and/or low stratus to form. Introduced patchy fog mentions at this point, and will reevaluate further to see if an upgrade to areas or widespread fog is necessary as we approach tonight. Otherwise, lows in the upper 60s inland, mid 70s for beaches as we continue the warming and moistening trend. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 AM Mon...Extended outlook headlines: - High heat risk Wednesday and Thursday with heat indices climbing to 105 or greater - Unsettled conditions return Thursday through the weekend with some strong thunderstorms possible Tuesday through Thursday...Upper level ridge will move into the Southeast from the upper Midwest Tuesday, and will settle overhead by Thursday, while at the surface Bermuda high pressure builds through the week. A shallow layer of moisture moving through ENC Tuesday will have the potential to produce an isolated shower, but overall it look dry. Increasing low level heights will boost temps into the low 90s Tuesday afternoon, and with dewpoints rising into the low 70s, it will feel like 95-100 degrees. Low level heights as well as moisture will continue to increase Wednesday and Thursday. This will lead to highs climbing into the mid 90s inland, and low 90s along the coast, and with dewpoints a remaining in the low to mid 70s, heat indices will peak at 103-108 degrees across ENC each day. Sunny and dry conditions persist Wednesday, but by Thursday an approaching front will cause scattered thunderstorm development late in the day across the forecast area. Friday through Sunday...The backdoor front will move into the area and stall Friday, with unsettled conditions likely. The front will then move back north this weekend, however unsettled conditions may persist with upper level troughing still over the region. Expect slightly cooler but still humid conditions late week with highs remaining mostly in the upper 80s to around 90. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Monday night/... As of 715 AM Monday...Lingering MVFR/IFR fog impaction portions of the coastal plain early this morning will quickly dissipate over the next 1-2 hours. For the remainder of today we have generally VFR conditions, with FEW/SCT cloud cover at 3-5kft. Tonight brings another risk of fog, although this time guidance is honing in on the hwy 17 corridor from Onslow to Pitt/Beaufort. This would result in reduced visibilities for all TAF terminals, with the highest confidence at this time for OAJ and EWN. Introduced 5SM BR for these two terminals early morning tomorrow, with 6SM BR for PGV and ISO due to the decreased confidence. If trends continue these forecasted vis will have to be brought further down. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 330 AM Mon...Generally good flying conditions are expected through Thursday afternoon with high pressure over the area. Thereafter, a front moving into the region will bring chances for sub-VFR conditions with any heavy showers and/or thunderstorms. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Monday night/... As of 230 AM Monday...Benign marine conditions for the most part are expected on the waters through Monday night as high pressure prevails. E/NE winds will remain light and become E'rly by daybreak and continue to veer, becoming S/SE'rly by the evening. Seas 2-4 ft will become 2-3 ft by daybreak. Areas of dense fog with visibilities below 1 nm is expected to develop well inland through 9AM and could spread over the inland rivers and the sounds early this morning creating hazardous conditions for mariners. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 330 AM Mon...Good boating conditions are expected through the work week with Bermuda high pressure reestablishing offshore. Winds will be light and out of the south on Tuesday, and then turn to the SW on Wednesday and increase to 10-20 kts. By Thursday winds weaken slightly, and then a front will cross the waters on Friday and bring a quick wind shift to the NE behind it at 5-15 kts. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through the period. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RJ SHORT TERM...RJ LONG TERM...SGK AVIATION...SGK/RJ MARINE...SGK/RJ