FXHW60 PHFO 081946
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
946 AM HST Thu Aug 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Trade winds will slightly ease today through Saturday, then
return to breezy levels Sunday through early next week. Showers
will favor windward and mauka areas, mostly overnight through the
morning periods.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Guidance indicates weakening of the resident upper ridge late today
through Friday as a weak upper low settles north of Kauai and a mid-
level trough approaches from the east. The surface ridge will
respond  by weakening causing the trades to ease into the light to
moderate range. Upper level height falls combined with increasing
low-level moisture and a higher inversion will lead to increased
windward and mauka shower coverage. This will particularly be the
case this weekend as a weak mid-level trough advances through the
forecast area from east to west. A few light showers will likewise
be possible over leeward zones during this time.

Breezy trades then redevelop by the end of this weekend and persist
through early next week as the governing surface high builds north
of the area.
&&

.AVIATION...

Locally breezy trade winds will weaken slightly today. Clouds and
showers will generally favor windward and mountain areas across
the island chain, but as winds weaken slightly, sea breezes may
allow clouds and showers to develop across a few leeward and
interior areas this afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail with
brief periods of MVFR possible in the overnight to early morning
hours along windward areas.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence over and
immediately south through west of all island mountains, but may be
cancelled later today as the trade winds weaken slightly.

&&

.MARINE...

A weak surface ridge north of the state will maintain moderate to
locally fresh trade winds through Friday then briefly weaken to
gentle to moderate speeds Friday night into Saturday. As the ridge
strengthens late this weekend into early next week, locally strong
trade winds may return by early next week.

A new small south-southwest swell is expected to slowly fill in on
Friday, peak Saturday slightly above the summer average, then
slowly decline Sunday into early next week.

A few tiny pulses from the north-northwest are expected during the
next few days and will likely keep the surf from going completely
flat along north facing shores through the weekend. Short-period
wind waves generated by the trade winds will gradually decline
through Friday as the trades ease. Small, long- period east
swells from increased east Pacific tropical cyclone activity may
arrive over the weekend, leading to a subtle increase in surf
heights.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...Vaughan
MARINE...Kino