FXUS65 KBOI 080220
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
820 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2024

.DISCUSSION...An area of high clouds (20-35kft MSL) will
continue lifting northward overnight as flow aloft becomes more
southerly. Clouds are blocking the satellite view of fire
temperature and smoke, but the continuation of west to north
surface winds overnight will push smoke south and east. Outside
of the vicinity of the fires, expect highest concentrations to
setup over Harney County, the w-central and Boise mountains and
along the foothills in the Snake Plain. Have updated the
forecast for cloud cover overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...Low VFR/MVFR with local IFR visibility near
wildfires (KBNO, KBOI). Patchy mountain obscuration. Surface
winds: variable 5-10 kt overnight into Thursday. Winds aloft at
10kft MSL: W-SW 5-15 kt.

KBOI...Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions from dense smoke. The
lowest visibility will be along the N-E quadrants. Broken high
clouds. Surface winds: SE 4-8 kt overnight through 21Z/Thu,
then NW 4-8 kt. Brief visibility improvement is possible
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...Near-surface smoke
has become worse in western Idaho due to the Paddock Fire north
of Emmett. Latest HRRR shows a band of thick smoke spreading
southward from the fire into the Treasure Valley just before
sunset and continuing through around 3 AM MDT. After that it
spreads into the Magic Valley but not quite as thick. On Thursday
night the HRRR shows the smoke from that fire even worse than
tonight in the Treasure Valley. The smoke may lower high temps
slightly Thursday and Friday but not affect low temps.

Latest models keep our CWA dry through Thursday but a slight
chance (10-20 percent) of thunderstorms appears in Harney
County Thursday evening. By Friday morning a 15-25 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms will extend from Baker
County eastward across the Weiser River area into the Boise
Mountains. On Friday afternoon a 30-50 percent chance of
thunderstorms is indicated in central Idaho near the eastern
edge of our CWA. A 20-30 percent chance of thunderstorms
will continue Friday night in Baker County/OR and the Boise
Mountains in Idaho.

Winds will stay generally light and variable through Friday
morning, then north or northwest Friday afternoon. Gusts up to
25 mph in southeast Oregon and in the southwest Idaho Highlands.


LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...Dry west to
southwesterly flow will continue through the long term.
Monsoon moisture will generally stay to the SE of the
forecast area. Temperatures will be a few degrees above
normal, but wildfire smoke may keep high temperatures
down a few degrees in the long term.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....SH
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA