FXUS65 KTFX 190528 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1128 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .Aviation Section Updated... .UPDATE... A rather compact lobe of mid level vorticity has rounded the top of the ridge just north of the Canadian border and is continuing to head eastward/southeastward this evening. Around and underneath this wave, cooler temperatures aloft combined with ample daytime mixing has resulted in a couple bands of showers and thunderstorms. Although an outside chance remains that one of these thunderstorms could produce a strong wind gust across eastern portions of North- central Montana, the window for it to occur is closing. The influence if the upper level wave decreases further southwest across Southwest Montana, but will be enough to continue showers and a few thunderstorms this evening and early overnight. Overall, the chance for stronger storms is much lower across Southwest Montana. Tweaks to the forecast this evening were relatively minor - incorporation of latest guidance and latest trends were taken into account. No significant changes overall. -AM && .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will diminish this evening, as very warm afternoon temperatures will continue for at least the next week. The above normal temperatures could result in near record high temperatures early next week. && .AVIATION... 19/06Z TAF Period Showers and thunderstorms have diminished across the region leaving only lingering mid and high level clouds across portions of the hi- line and southwestern Montana. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with generally light and variable winds. Additional showers and a few thunderstorms look to form around terrain again Friday afternoon, but confidence in any impacts to terminals across Southwest and Central Montana is far too low at this time to include mention in TAFs. Density altitude concerns from hot temperatures, as well as slant range visibility concerns due to wildfire smoke will continue this TAF period. -AM/thor Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024/ Tonight through Thursday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move from west to east across the CWA this evening. A few storms could be strong, with an isolated severe storm possible. The main threat from any severe storm will be gusty winds. Expect above normal afternoon temperatures to continue for the next week. There is a small potential that a few locations could approach near record high temperatures early next week. After today, the chances for any more showers/thunderstorms is very limited, with most areas having less than a 10 percent chance through next next Thursday. Brusda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 60 92 62 94 / 10 0 0 0 CTB 56 92 58 94 / 20 10 10 0 HLN 62 98 63 98 / 10 0 0 10 BZN 56 94 56 95 / 30 0 0 10 WYS 45 85 44 85 / 40 10 10 10 DLN 54 89 53 90 / 20 10 0 0 HVR 60 95 63 97 / 30 0 0 10 LWT 56 87 58 88 / 40 10 0 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls