FXUS66 KMTR 191749 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1049 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 302 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Warm again going into the weekend. Short cool down Sunday with another warm up on the way through next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 942 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Hot weather continues today before briefly returning to near seasonal temperatures over the weekend. Widespread moderate heat risk is expected over the Bay Area and interior Central Coast with pockets of major heat risk in areas of elevated terrain. For those who are particularly sensitive to heat, remember to limit time outdoors during peak heating (afternoon/evening) and to stay well hydrated. Elevated fire weather concerns persist into Saturday as warmer, drier conditions continue with gusts between 30-35 mph possible in mountain gaps and passes (particularly across the North Bay and East Bay). In today's forecast package we will be further investigating fire weather conditions/concerns and further refining next week's forecast high temperatures as temperatures build again. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 302 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Another warm day today with the upper level ridge building further into the northern Rockies. Heat Advisory remains in effect for inland areas as moderate HeatRisk continues today, except for areas right along the immediate coast and the Monterey Bay/Northern Salinas Valley region. These areas will continue to benefit from a modest marine layer that will remain intact. The upper level ridge responsible for the heat will gradually migrate eastward, and a transient shortwave trough begins to approach the West Coast by tonight. As such, the Heat Advisory is set to expire this evening. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 302 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Going into Saturday, inland areas that were under the advisory can expect to shave off as much as 8-10 degrees. An exception to this will be southern Monterey and San Benito counties, where high temps will still be around the 100-105 mark. Another touch cooler Sunday when the shortwave trough moves through our area, deepening the marine layer and potentially resulting in areas of drizzle Sunday morning. Alas...easy come, easy go. Monday marks the start of the next warming trend following the departure of the trough. As of this forecast, temps look to be about what was experienced these past couple of days. Basically Monday through Thursday we will likely see highs between 95-105 for inland and high elevation areas, 85-95 for lower elevations and urban areas around the SF Bay, and 65-75 for coastal areas. This period will likely be the target for the next heat product issuance, but we will wait for future shifts to let the forecast develop and avoid confusing messaging with the current heat products. Looking out towards next weekend, ensemble cluster analysis supports a welcome pattern change. Still a few details to be ironed out, but a return to cooler temperatures is starting to look promising. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1044 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024 VFR through the TAF Period for all but the Monterey Bay immediate coast, which will see IFR CIGs tonight and through much of Saturday morning. Breezy to gusty winds build this afternoon, with stronger winds just off the coast and at SFO. Expect winds to become light to moderate overnight. Widespread VFR returns in the mid to late morning on Saturday, with moderate to breezy winds expected that afternoon. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Gusty westerly winds arrive this afternoon with peak gusts around 28 kts. Gusts reduce into the late night, but steady winds stay moderate. Stronger winds are expected are expected to build Saturday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR into the late night with IFR CIGs pushing inland. Expect moderate west winds build this afternoon but reduce into the late evening. Another round of moderate west winds arrive as cloud cover erodes into late Saturday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1044 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Breezy to gusty northwest winds will continue across the waters through this weekend and early next week, strongest mainly across the northern outer waters which will see gale force gusts. In the unprotected waters, short period seas will build with wave heights between 10-12 feet Friday and further deteriorate to very rough by Sunday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ006-506-508. Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ503-504-506- 510-513>515-517-518. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm- Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Behringer LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea