FXUS66 KMTR 191644 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 944 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024 ...New UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 302 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Warm again going into the weekend. Short cool down Sunday with another warm up on the way through next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 942 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Hot weather continues today before briefly returning to near seasonal temperatures over the weekend. Widespread moderate heat risk is expected over the Bay Area and interior Central Coast with pockets of major heat risk in areas of elevated terrain. For those who are particularly sensitive to heat, remember to limit time outdoors during peak heating (afternoon/evening) and to stay well hydrated. Elevated fire weather concerns persist into Saturday as warmer, drier conditions continue with gusts between 30-35 mph possible in mountain gaps and passes (particularly across the North Bay and East Bay). In today's forecast package we will be further investigating fire weather conditions/concerns and further refining next week's forecast high temperatures as temperatures build again. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 302 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Another warm day today with the upper level ridge building further into the northern Rockies. Heat Advisory remains in effect for inland areas as moderate HeatRisk continues today, except for areas right along the immediate coast and the Monterey Bay/Northern Salinas Valley region. These areas will continue to benefit from a modest marine layer that will remain intact. The upper level ridge responsible for the heat will gradually migrate eastward, and a transient shortwave trough begins to approach the West Coast by tonight. As such, the Heat Advisory is set to expire this evening. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 302 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Going into Saturday, inland areas that were under the advisory can expect to shave off as much as 8-10 degrees. An exception to this will be southern Monterey and San Benito counties, where high temps will still be around the 100-105 mark. Another touch cooler Sunday when the shortwave trough moves through our area, deepening the marine layer and potentially resulting in areas of drizzle Sunday morning. Alas...easy come, easy go. Monday marks the start of the next warming trend following the departure of the trough. As of this forecast, temps look to be about what was experienced these past couple of days. Basically Monday through Thursday we will likely see highs between 95-105 for inland and high elevation areas, 85-95 for lower elevations and urban areas around the SF Bay, and 65-75 for coastal areas. This period will likely be the target for the next heat product issuance, but we will wait for future shifts to let the forecast develop and avoid confusing messaging with the current heat products. Looking out towards next weekend, ensemble cluster analysis supports a welcome pattern change. Still a few details to be ironed out, but a return to cooler temperatures is starting to look promising. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 331 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Coastal stratus and fog /IFR-LIFR/ are moving into nearby coastal valleys, inland it's VFR. Stratus and fog mixing out back to the coastline by late morning. Breezy onshore winds redeveloping in the afternoon and evening. Coastal stratus and fog /IFR-LIFR/ moving back into the nearby coastal valleys tonight and Saturday morning. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Breezy west-northwest wind developing in the afternoon and evening with gusts to 25 knots. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR-LIFR due to stratus and fog this morning, clearing by late morning. Onshore winds 5 to 15 knots in the afternoon and early evening. IFR-LIFR due to stratus and fog moving back inland tonight and Saturday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 302 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Gusty northwest winds will continue across the coastal waters through this weekend and early next week, strongest mainly across the northern and outer waters. In the unprotected waters, short period seas will build with wave heights between 10-12 feet Friday and further deteriorate to very rough by Sunday. Conditions will remain hazardous to small craft throughout the forecast period. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ006-506-508. Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ503-504-506- 510-513>515-517-518. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm- Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Behringer LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea