FXUS66 KMTR 191010 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 310 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 302 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Warm again going into the weekend. Short cool down Sunday with another warm up on the way through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 302 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Another warm day today with the upper level ridge building further into the northern Rockies. Heat Advisory remains in effect for inland areas as moderate HeatRisk continues today, except for areas right along the immediate coast and the Monterey Bay/Northern Salinas Valley region. These areas will continue to benefit from a modest marine layer that will remain intact. The upper level ridge responsible for the heat will gradually migrate eastward, and a transient shortwave trough begins to approach the West Coast by tonight. As such, the Heat Advisory is set to expire this evening. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 302 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Going into Saturday, inland areas that were under the advisory can expect to shave off as much as 8-10 degrees. An exception to this will be southern Monterey and San Benito counties, where high temps will still be around the 100-105 mark. Another touch cooler Sunday when the shortwave trough moves through our area, deepening the marine layer and potentially resulting in areas of drizzle Sunday morning. Alas...easy come, easy go. Monday marks the start of the next warming trend following the departure of the trough. As of this forecast, temps look to be about what was experienced these past couple of days. Basically Monday through Thursday we will likely see highs between 95-105 for inland and high elevation areas, 85-95 for lower elevations and urban areas around the SF Bay, and 65-75 for coastal areas. This period will likely be the target for the next heat product issuance, but we will wait for future shifts to let the forecast develop and avoid confusing messaging with the current heat products. Looking out towards next weekend, ensemble cluster analysis supports a welcome pattern change. Still a few details to be ironed out, but a return to cooler temperatures is starting to look promising. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1023 PM PDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Generally clear through the region with IFR-LIFR stratus limited to the immediate Central Coast and Monterey Bay regions, with light winds continuing overnight. Low confidence of stratus expanding inland besides the Monterey Bay region tonight. Any inland stratus that does develop will mix out through Friday morning, with breezy onshore flow resuming in the afternoon. Vicinity of SFO...Low confidence for stratus tonight, but if any stratus expands inland outside of MRY and SNS, SFO and OAK are the likeliest to see IFR ceilings. Probabilities are low, so the TAF remains VFR throughout. Breezy west-northwest winds continue overnight before winds gusting to 25-30 knots build back in again Friday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR stratus over MRY at present, expected soon over SNS. LIFR ceilings and patchy fog is possible in the early morning on Friday, with stratus mixing out later in the morning while breezy onshore winds resume Friday afternoon. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 302 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Gusty northwest winds will continue across the coastal waters through this weekend and early next week, strongest mainly across the northern and outer waters. In the unprotected waters, short period seas will build with wave heights between 10-12 feet Friday and further deteriorate to very rough by Sunday. Conditions will remain hazardous to small craft throughout the forecast period. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ006-506-508. Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ503-504-506- 510-513>515-517-518. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm- Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Behringer LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...DialH MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea