FXUS62 KMHX 192310 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 710 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A stalled frontal boundary will continue to meander across the Carolinas for the next several days. Unsettled weather will continue into next week with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. Storm coverage is uncertain, but increasing soil moisture levels from heavy rains present a greater likelihood of runoff and localized flooding. 2-3"/hour rainfall rates are possible with locally higher amounts. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 7 PM Fri...Made little in the way of changes this evening to the forecast as everything is tracking relatively well. Latest surface analysis shows the stalled front currently draped over ENC in an E-W line from about Cape Hatteras to across Pitt County and areas west. Ongoing scattered shower and thunderstorm activity persists mainly along and east of Hwy 17 with even some heavy rain occuring across portions of southern Beaufort. As a result we do currently have a flood advisory out across southern Beaufort County where 2-3 inches of rain have fallen within this last hour. Otherwise continue to expect scattered shower and thunderstorm development over the next several hours across ENC with a ow end threat for flooding across the area as any shower or storm could produce high rainfall rates. Prev Disc...Expectation for tonight is the ongoing activity along the front to continue gradually nudging south, while a few discrete single cells potentially develop south of the boundary in the afternoon. The resultant outflow from the frontally forced line could provide a secondary mechanism to initiate some shower and storm activity. The storms are very slow moving and will continue to produce torrential rainfall given SBCAPEs exceeding 2000 J/kg and PWATs well in excess of 2". Combined with previous rainfall over the past 48 hours and saturated soils, it will take less than usual to result in some instances of flash flooding. A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall is forecast for our area along and south of Highway 64 from WPC. Overnight pattern is a familiar one, with highest PoPs along the coast and a chance of scattered showers over the coastal plain. Still sultry, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Low stratus and some fog are once again possible early Sat morning. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... As of 340 PM Fri...Front will continue to meander over the Carolinas tomorrow, although guidance consensus does point to a retreat northward through the day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms again remain a threat in the afternoon and evening, but like today the impacts of potential remnant cloud cover may result in more limited coverage than advertised by some CAMs. If robust convection can get going, there is a low end risk of more organized convection capable of producing wet downbursts. Lack of shear remains a limiting factor, with few models showing any effective shear higher than 20-25 kt. SPC has our area in a Level 1 (Marginal) risk of severe storms to account for this risk. Warmer temperatures return as the front retreats northward, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 240 AM Fri...Key message: Unsettled weather with periods of showers and thunderstorms will persist into much of the upcoming week as moist southerly flow continues and a wavy, weak front persists over/near eastern NC through the period. Saturday through Thursday...No end in sight for the unsettled, wet period that started mid week. A very moist airmass combined with the proximity to a weak front/boundary will lead to an above climo chance for rain each day in the form of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The showers and storms will have torrential downpours with PW values remaining 2" or higher. This will likely result in several inches of rainfall by mid next week. Frequent downpours will produce localized Flash Flood issues in urban and poor drainage areas. High temps will run at or just slightly below normal, while lows will be slightly above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through Fri/... As of 710 PM Fri... Stalled frontal boundary remains across ENC this evening currently stretching from Hatteras Island westwards. Ongoing rain and thunderstorm activity is currently occuring along and to the south of this front allowing for brief periods of reduced ceilings and vis. Continue to expect precip to generally march eastwards this evening and coverage should gradually wane over the next few hours. As a result, generally expect primarily VFR conditions for the first half of the evening across ENC. As we get into the late night to early morning Sat timeframe the environment is once again supportive for sub-VFR ceilings especially along the Coastal Plain where MVFR and IFR ceilings are currently forecast to begin to overspread the area after 06Z. Elsewhere to the east of Hwy 17 a mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings are forecast especially after 06Z. These lower ceilings and vis will last until Sat morning before increasing back to VFR across all of ENC by 15Z. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 240 AM Fri...Scattered to numerous mainly diurnal showers and storms will continue into early next week with occasional sub VFR conditions. In addition, overnight fog/low stratus clouds will be possible early each morning especially in areas that received heavy rainfall. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-15 kts through much of the period. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Saturday/... As of 345 PM Fri...No SCA conditions expected in the short term, although rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely once again especially overnight into Sat morning. Regional observations show a cold front draped from roughly Oregon Inlet westward to just north of the Pamlico River, with northeasterly winds to the north and southerly winds to the south. Winds are generally around 10 kt area wide, with seas of 2-3 feet. Little change in these conditions are expected, although the front will slowly retreat back northward through the night and into Saturday. Southwesterly winds will increase through Saturday, reaching a peak of 15-20 kt Sat evening with a stronger thermal gradient in place. This late surge will build seas back to around 4 feet, especially for Raleigh and Onslow Bays. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 240 AM Fri...The flow is expected to become S/SW all waters through the period. On Sat the flow will become enhanced as lower pressures inland lead to slightly stronger gradient. Winds will increase to 15-20 kt and could briefly reach SCA levels in the late afternoon and early evening. Otherwise the flow will be mainly 10-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. Shower and storm chances are forecast to be high through early next week. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 345 PM Fri...The forecast is for unsettled, wet conditions to continue well into next week with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day, especially during the afternoon and evenings. While there is considerable uncertainty in exact details on storm coverage each day, soil moisture levels continue to increase due to heavy rains from the previous couple of days indicating that any additional heavy rains would runoff more easily and result in local flooding. In addition with PW values expected to continue seasonally high (>=2"), locally heavy rain amounts will continue to be a threat over the next several days. There is the potential for storms to produce 2-3" in an hour which would be enough generate urban/poor drainage flooding. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...MS/RCF SHORT TERM...MS LONG TERM...JME AVIATION...JME/RCF MARINE...JME/MS HYDROLOGY...MHX