FXUS62 KMHX 191736 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 136 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A stalled front is parked near the NC/VA border and will move slightly south day. Unsettled weather will continue into next week with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. Storm coverage is uncertain, but increasing soil moisture levels from heavy rains present a greater likelihood of runoff and localized flooding. 2-3"/hour rainfall rates are possible with locally higher amounts. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1025 AM Fri...Frontal boundary continues to slowly meander southward today, oriented roughly from Cape Hatteras westwards. Band of rain persists just north of the boundary, and although it is comparatively weak MRMS estimates point to nearly an inch of rain already fallen in the past hour - no surprise in an airmass with PWATs over 2 inches. The frontal boundary will provide a focal point for yet another round of showers and storms today, but the role of lingering cloud cover is increasing uncertainty on the coverage. Convective temperatures are in the upper 80s, but with weak mixing clouds will likely hold on for the better part of the morning and potentially prevent enough robust warming to allow for numerous showers and storms. Kept PoPs at likely but did remove categorical mentions given the uncertainty. With saturated soils from yesterday's heavy rain, localized flash flooding remains a concern with widespread 1.5-3" expected through Monday. Any storm will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, so WPC has most of the FA outlined in a slight risk for excessive rainfall today. See the Hydrology section for more details. Highs will be in the mid-80s today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... As of 4 AM Friday...PoPs remain greatest near the coast overnight but scattered showers across the coastal plain are not out of the question. Lows will be similar to last night with temps in the low to mid 70s. With saturated soils and winds likely to decouple, overnight fog and low stratus are possible. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 240 AM Fri...Key message: Unsettled weather with periods of showers and thunderstorms will persist into much of the upcoming week as moist southerly flow continues and a wavy, weak front persists over/near eastern NC through the period. Saturday through Thursday...No end in sight for the unsettled, wet period that started mid week. A very moist airmass combined with the proximity to a weak front/boundary will lead to an above climo chance for rain each day in the form of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The showers and storms will have torrential downpours with PW values remaining 2" or higher. This will likely result in several inches of rainfall by mid next week. Frequent downpours will produce localized Flash Flood issues in urban and poor drainage areas. High temps will run at or just slightly below normal, while lows will be slightly above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through Fri/... As of 135 PM Fri...Bit of a messy forecast this afternoon as a stalled front bisects eastern NC this afternoon. Already seeing scattered TS roughly along and north of Highway 264, and expect this activity to continue into the early evening hours as instability continues to build. Further south, not seeing much development as clouds have kept temperatures rather subdued, but latest near-term guidance does point to eventual initiation after 19z, lingering to a couple hours after sunset. The environment once again is supportive of torrential downpours which could briefly but severely limit visibilities. Like last night, seeing a strong signal for low stratus and fog to a lesser extent, especially across the coastal plain terminals. The signal is strongest in the reliable GLAMP guidance, and the TAFs were adjusted accordingly albeit with a broader window of restrictions. Conditions gradually improve back towards VFR by midday Sat. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 240 AM Fri...Scattered to numerous mainly diurnal showers and storms will continue into early next week with occasional sub VFR conditions. In addition, overnight fog/low stratus clouds will be possible early each morning especially in areas that received heavy rainfall. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-15 kts through much of the period. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 4 AM Friday...All SCAs have now expired as conditions are improving for both winds and seas. Today, winds will be around 10-15 kt out of the SW. The exception will be the northern waters, which will encounter variable wind directions this afternoon with the front sagging south. 2-5 ft seas will decrease to 2-3 ft by tonight but build back to 2-5 ft across the southern waters by tomorrow morning. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 240 AM Fri...The flow is expected to become S/SW all waters through the period. On Sat the flow will become enhanced as lower pressures inland lead to slightly stronger gradient. Winds will increase to 15-20 kt and could briefly reach SCA levels in the late afternoon and early evening. Otherwise the flow will be mainly 10-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. Shower and storm chances are forecast to be high through early next week. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 240 AM Fri...The forecast is for unsettled, wet conditions to continue well into next week with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day, especially during the afternoon and evenings. While there is considerable uncertainty in exact details on storm coverage each day, soil moisture levels continue to increase due to heavy rains from the previous couple of days indicating that any additional heavy rains would runoff more easily and result in local flooding. In addition with PW values expected to continue seasonally high (>=2"), locally heavy rain amounts will continue to be a threat over the next several days. In fact, the high res models QPF amounts are in excess of 8" in spots over the next 48 hours (through Sunday). While these extreme amounts may not be realized, there is certainly the potential for storms to produce 2-3" in an hour which would be enough generate urban/poor drainage flooding. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...MS/OJC SHORT TERM...OJC LONG TERM...JME AVIATION...JME/MS MARINE...JME/OJC HYDROLOGY...MHX