FXUS62 KMHX 190758 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 358 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A stalled front is parked near the NC/VA border and will move slightly south day. Unsettled weather will continue into next week with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. Storm coverage is uncertain, but increasing soil moisture levels from heavy rains present a greater likelihood of runoff and localized flooding. 2-3"/hour rainfall rates are possible with locally higher amounts. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 3 AM Fri...A stalled boundary is parked near the VA/NC border and will move slightly farther south into the FA today. This will serve as the main forcing mechanism for another day of scattered to numerous showers and storms across the area. With saturated soils from yesterday's heavy rain, localized flash flooding remains a concern with widespread 1.5-3" expected through Monday. Coverage is uncertain, but any storm will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, so WPC has most of the FA outlined in a slight risk for excessive rainfall today. See the Hydrology section for more details. The severe threat is low but non-zero. Instability is sufficient and deep layer shear is more than it has been over the past few days, but the greatest hazard concern will be the heavy rainfall. Highs will be in the mid-80s today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... As of 4 AM Friday...PoPs remain greatest near the coast overnight but scattered showers across the coastal plain are not out of the question. Lows will be similar to last night with temps in the low to mid 70s. With saturated soils and winds likely to decouple, overnight fog and low stratus are possible. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 240 AM Fri...Key message: Unsettled weather with periods of showers and thunderstorms will persist into much of the upcoming week as moist southerly flow continues and a wavy, weak front persists over/near eastern NC through the period. Saturday through Thursday...No end in sight for the unsettled, wet period that started mid week. A very moist airmass combined with the proximity to a weak front/boundary will lead to an above climo chance for rain each day in the form of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The showers and storms will have torrential downpours with PW values remaining 2" or higher. This will likely result in several inches of rainfall by mid next week. Frequent downpours will produce localized Flash Flood issues in urban and poor drainage areas. High temps will run at or just slightly below normal, while lows will be slightly above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through Fri/... As of 4 AM Friday...Low stratus coverage has been increasing across the CWA for the past few hours. These lowered ceilings could last through late morning or early afternoon. Conditions should improve back to VFR by this afternoon but then another opportunity for sub-VFR conditions will arise with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected today. These storms will be capable of producing torrential downpours and strong wind gusts. Fog and low stratus are likely again tonight given the saturated soils and likelihood that we will decouple. The saving grace would be greater cloud cover to reduce radiational cooling. As of 2 AM Friday... No significant changes to the forecast through tomorrow as impactful showers and thunderstorms are currently making their way across ENC this evening with storms already through PGV/ISO with OAJ/EWN likely seeing rain and storms within the next 1-2 hours. Cold front will move into the area tonight, stalling Friday. Strong to severe thunderstorms possible through late this evening, with increasing confidence in widespread sub-VFR conditions developing late this evening and tonight. Strong storms could bring gusty winds and heavy rain. Low cigs likely developing overnight with potential for IFR. Patchy fog will also be possible across the inland terminals early Fri morning with moist boundary layer and calm winds. Sub- VFR cigs could linger through late morning and early afternoon before grad improving to VFR by the afternoon on Fri with light winds and VFR ceilings and vis forecast after about 18Z Fri. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 240 AM Fri...Scattered to numerous mainly diurnal showers and storms will continue into early next week with occasional sub VFR conditions. In addition, overnight fog/low stratus clouds will be possible early each morning especially in areas that received heavy rainfall. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-15 kts through much of the period. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 4 AM Friday...All SCAs have now expired as conditions are improving for both winds and seas. Today, winds will be around 10-15 kt out of the SW. The exception will be the northern waters, which will encounter variable wind directions this afternoon with the front sagging south. 2-5 ft seas will decrease to 2-3 ft by tonight but build back to 2-5 ft across the southern waters by tomorrow morning. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 240 AM Fri...The flow is expected to become S/SW all waters through the period. On Sat the flow will become enhanced as lower pressures inland lead to slightly stronger gradient. Winds will increase to 15-20 kt and could briefly reach SCA levels in the late afternoon and early evening. Otherwise the flow will be mainly 10-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. Shower and storm chances are forecast to be high through early next week. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 240 AM Fri...The forecast is for unsettled, wet conditions to continue well into next week with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day, especially during the afternoon and evenings. While there is considerable uncertainty in exact details on storm coverage each day, soil moisture levels continue to increase due to heavy rains from the previous couple of days indicating that any additional heavy rains would runoff more easily and result in local flooding. In addition with PW values expected to continue seasonally high (>=2"), locally heavy rain amounts will continue to be a threat over the next several days. In fact, the high res models QPF amounts are in excess of 8" in spots over the next 48 hours (through Sunday). While these extreme amounts may not be realized, there is certainly the potential for storms to produce 2-3" in an hour which would be enough generate urban/poor drainage flooding. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...OJC SHORT TERM...OJC LONG TERM...JME AVIATION...JME/OJC MARINE...JME/OJC HYDROLOGY...MHX