FXUS62 KMHX 190222 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1022 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move into the area tonight, stalling Friday. The weak boundary, coupled with strong dynamics and a very moist atmosphere will likely lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with moderate to locally heavy rain through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... As of 1015 PM Thu... Previously mentioned front has stalled out along the NC/VA border this evening with ongoing moderate to occasionally heavy rain and isolated thunderstorm activity still working its way through ENC this evening. Expect the severe and flash flooding risk to be very low through the rest of tonight as instability has waned significantly with the loss of day time heating, wind shear remains weak, and while PWAT's are still up around 2+ inches, rainfall rates have lowered as well. So had cancelled the severe thunderstorm watch earlier this evening and have just cancelled the flash flood watch tonight. Still could see widespread additional rainfall amounts over the next few hours of 0.5-1.0 inches with localized higher amounts. But given the current flash flood guidance this should remain well below flooding thresholds. Either way our continued wet evening will persist through just after midnight before things dry out, especially along the Coastal Plain. As things dry out current forecast suggests some patchy fog will develop along the Coastal Plain as well after midnight as our low levels remain saturated and winds become light and variable to calm at times. Lows tonight get into the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 3 PM Thu...A weak cold front will stall across the region Fri as broad SW flow continues aloft. Still expect scattered to numerous showers and storms across the area, with best chances maximized during the afternoon and evening. Anomalously high PWAT values continue at 2.25" or higher, combined with good upper dynamics and convergence near the boundary. Main concern will be potential for locally heavy rain, which could lead to additional flooding concerns, depending on rainfall during the next 12-18 hours. Threat could be more focused for areas along and east of Hwy 17. Temps near or slightly below climo with clouds and precip. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 235 AM Thu...Key message: Unsettled weather with periods of showers and thunderstorms will persist through the weekend and maybe even into early next week. The showers and storms will have torrential downpours with several inches of rainfall possible by Sunday. Frequent downpours will produce localized Flash Flood issues. Saturday through Wednesday...A very moist airmass combined with the proximity to a weak front/boundary will lead to an above climo chance for rain each day in the form of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. There is some indication that the rain threat may ease by mid next week as the Atlantic subtropical ridge strengthens and builds west over NC. Meanwhile scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected through early next week with locally heavy rain the main threat. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through Fri/... As of 715 PM Thu... No significant changes to the forecast through tomorrow as impactful showers and thunderstorms are currently making their way across ENC this evening with storms already through PGV/ISO with OAJ/EWN likely seeing rain and storms within the next 1-2 hours. Cold front will move into the area tonight, stalling Friday. Strong to severe thunderstorms possible through late this evening, with increasing confidence in widespread sub-VFR conditions developing late this evening and tonight. Strong storms could bring gusty winds and heavy rain. Low cigs likely developing overnight with potential for IFR. Patchy fog will also be possible across the inland terminals early Fri morning with moist boundary layer and calm winds. Sub- VFR cigs could linger through late morning and early afternoon before grad improving to VFR by the afternoon on Fri with light winds and VFR ceilings and vis forecast after about 18Z Fri. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 235 AM Thu...Scattered to numerous mainly diurnal showers and storms will continue into early next week with occasional sub VFR conditions. In addition, overnight fog/low stratus clouds will be possible early each morning especially in areas that received heavy rainfall. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-15 kts through much of the period. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 7 PM Thu... One minor tweak to the forecast for tonight, as the SCA across the Pamlico Sound has been extended until 10 PM to account for the latest observations across the area with 25+ kt gusts holding on slightly longer than previously forecast. Prev Disc...Moderate to gusty SW winds will continue through late this evening with winds and seas gradually easing. A cold front will move into the area late tonight, stalling across portions of the waters Friday. Latest obs show SW winds 15-25 kt, gusting 20-30 kt, and seas 4-6 ft. SCA remains in effect for all of the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. Winds and seas will grad ease late this evening and tonight. Boundary bisecting the coastal waters and sounds will lead to variable winds Fri...NE 5-10 kt north of the front and SW 5-15 kt south of the boundary...with seas 2-4 ft. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight with the main hazards of concern being heavy rainfall, strong winds, and frequent lightning. Additional scattered thunderstorms expected Friday. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 235 AM Thu...The flow is expected to become southerly all waters Sat 10-20 kt. Southerly winds Sunday and Mon are forecast to be mainly 10-15 kt. Seas are forecast to be 2-4 ft through the period. Shower and storm chances are forecast to be high through early next week. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 3 PM Thu...Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of the area through late tonight. Numerous showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon into the weekend, aided by a stalled frontal boundary and anomalously high PWATs. WPC continues to outlook the area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall today and Fri with qpf storm totals 3-5" forecast through Sat with locally higher amounts possible. This could lead to areas of minor flooding and localized flash flooding through at least Friday. Main concern through tonight is areas north of Hwy 264. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD/RCF SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...JME AVIATION...JME/RCF MARINE...JME/CQD HYDROLOGY...MHX