FXUS66 KLOX 191119 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 419 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS...19/256 AM. A significant heatwave will impact Southern California Friday into next week. A large portion of the mountains, foothills, and valleys away from the coast will experience dangerously hot conditions, and very warm temperatures may extend toward the coast. Gusty Sundowner winds will affect portions of southern Santa Barbara County through Saturday night. Monsoonal moisture will potentially bring thunderstorms to the interior mountains and valleys each afternoon through at least Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...19/410 AM. A ridge of high pressure will continue to elongate over the western states into next week, resulting in very warm to dangerously high temperatures away from the coast through much of next week. Slight changes are expected each day, but the message remains the same - it will be very hot away from the coast and heat illness is a threat to anyone, especially as you move further inland (and especially further inland past the mountains). Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in place for the majority of the mountains, valleys, and far interior areas which will last through at least the weekend. The immediate coastal areas (especially south of Point Conception) may see limited change each day as a shallow marine layer each day will remain present. Today, temperatures will increase a few degrees across the majority of the region due to the increasing 500 mb heights along with a slight decrease in onshore trends. Saturday is a little more difficult as the onshore trends start to increase slightly, and a weak low pressure system moves over the Central Coast and breaks down in the evening. This low pressure system may result in a few degrees of cooling along the Central Coast areas closest to the Coast. By Sunday, temperatures should climb to 105 to 112 degrees across the lower mountains and far interior areas (including the Antelope Valley), 95 to 105 across the warmest coastal valleys, while areas closest to the coast will range in the upper 60s to high 70s degrees. These temperatures will increase to 5 to 15 degrees above normal as you move away from the coast. The ridge of high pressure will continue to bring in moisture from the south, increasing PWATs to 1.0 inches across Los Angeles County by Saturday. As a result, there is a less than 20 percent chance of thunderstorms (including dry lightning) and monsoonal rain showers to the Los Angeles County interior mountains and deserts (thanks to orographic lifting) each day in the short term, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. Saturday looks to have the highest chances for thunderstorms this weekend, as the PWATs peak that day for the weekend. However, these chances remain too low to include in the official forecast. As for winds, the Western Santa Ynez Range and Southwestern Santa Barbara Coast will see gusty NW Sundowner winds each evening through Sunday night. Tonight and Sunday evening look fairly similar with the SBA to SMX pressure gradient sitting around -2 mb, which will bring gusts of 40 mph to locally 45 mph both evenings. On Saturday evening, the pressure gradient is forecast to strengthen to around -3.3 mb, which could cause a slight increase in the gusts and result in a wind advisory being needed for that evening and night. On Saturday, southerly flow from the low pressure system and the ridge will lead to an increase in southwesterly winds across interior mountains and valleys each afternoon and evening Saturday and Sunday, however will likely remain below advisory levels. .LONG TERM (MON-THU)...19/417 AM. The long-duration dangerously hot conditions will continue through at least Wednesday, at least for the interior mountains and far interior areas. Temperatures will remain fairly similar day-to-day Monday through Wednesday as not much will change synoptically. Nights will remain very warm across the far interior, with forecast lows to be in the 70s to 80s, resulting in little overnight relief and potentially worsen heat impacts. On Thursday, a trough should drop down the west coast and temperatures should drop for the later portion of the week. The potential for daily monsoonal thunderstorms and locally heavy showers continues into mid-week. PWATs will rise to around 1 to 1.5 inches across the region, thanks to the southerly flow funneling the moisture northward. While the moisture continues to increase and expand across the area, confidence remains low this far out so thunderstorms remain out of the official forecast. However, a slight chance of showers nudged into the eastern Antelope Valley and eastern foothills, as well as the eastern San Gabriel Mountains for Tuesday and Wednesday morning. If thunderstorms were to form, they will likely form over the higher terrain and interior valleys of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties and possibly extend into Santa Barbara County by early next week. && .AVIATION...19/0616Z. At 05Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1100 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 3900 feet with a temperature of 29 Celsius. High confidence in CAVU TAFs for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY. High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF. Low confidence in all coastal TAFs. Flight categories to be off by one category for all coastal sites through Friday morning. VFR conditions expected at all sites by 21Z, however many may clear by 18Z. Flight category changes may vary by +/- 3 hours from current forecasts. KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 40% chance for cigs below 005 until 15Z. There is a 10% chance for cigs below 002 and/or vsbys AOB 1/4SM until 15Z. High confidence in cigs dissipating by 18Z at the latest. Flight category changes may be off +/- 3 hours from current forecast. No significant east wind component expected. KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF. && .MARINE...19/334 AM. For the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) northwest winds are ongoing and are expected to continue through this weekend. There is a 70% chance of low end Gale Force winds to impact the outer waters this weekend. A Gale watch is in effect from Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. Winds will likely taper off Monday, but there is a 50% chance of SCA winds Monday through early next week. Steep seas will also impact the outer waters through at least Monday. For the inner waters north of Pt. Sal, northwest winds are expected to reach SCA levels this afternoon and continuing into Sunday night. The strongest winds are expected during the later afternoon and evening hours each day. There is a 30% chance that SCA winds don't occur today, but they are much more likely Saturday and Sunday (70%). Steep and hazardous seas are expected this afternoon into the weekend. For the inner waters south of Pt. Conception, winds will increase this afternoon through this weekend in the Santa Barbara Channel. SCA level winds expected this afternoon through Sunday evening for the SBA Channel, strongest for the western portion. There is a 30% chance that winds will remain below SCA level in the Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon/evening. SCA winds are far more likely Saturday and Sunday (60%). In the furthest southern inner waters, there is a 30% chance for SCA northwest winds to occur over the waters off of the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts Saturday and Sunday. The highest chances are during the afternoon and evening hours across the San Pedro Channel, and west of Catalina Island. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PDT Wednesday for zones 38-88-344-345-351>353-371-372-376>383. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM PDT Sunday for zones 342-343-369-370-374-375. (See LAXNPWLOX). Excessive Heat Watch remains in effect from Sunday morning through Wednesday evening for zones 342-343-369-370-374-375. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT Saturday for zones 373-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Sunday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT Saturday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Lund AVIATION...Lewis MARINE...Lewis/Schoenfeld SYNOPSIS...Smith weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox