FXUS62 KILM 191725 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 125 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Rain chances will remain elevated through Monday with temperatures running near to slightly below normal. Unsettled weather may continue into early next week. && .UPDATE... Aviation discussion updated below for 18z TAFs. Otherwise, forecast on track with plenty of cu around and some mid to high clouds streaming in from the SW. Westerly steering flow keeping convective development close to coast and then moving offshore quickly. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A cold front just north and west of the area will remain near the area today and tonight as upper level energy approaches from the sw. These features will interact with moist, unstable air over the area to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon and evening. Given the abundant moisture available, locally heavy rain is possible but antecedent soil and stream conditions should preclude flooding widespread enough to warrant a watch attm. Highs today should reach the upper 80s to around 90 with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The mid level pattern for the weekend will consist of a broad southwest flow with intervals of showers and thunderstorms across the area. The highest pops reside in the afternoon and evening hours assisted by the mesoscale features of the sea breeze and other convectively produced outflow boundaries. Afternoon high temperatures...highly dependent on convective coverage should reach the lower 90s Saturday and cool off a bit Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Only subtle changes to the mid level pattern for next week as would be expected this time of year. Medium range guidance is in better agreement on the Bermuda/Azores ridge pushing or more like wobbling back to the west. As a result pops trend more toward climatology in time. Temperatures appear to hover around or just a little above climatology. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Convection starting to break out slowly but surely to open the 18Z TAF period. Coverage is isolated at this point, and while there are no guarantees of storms hitting the terminals, threw in TEMPO groups over the next few hours to cover the TSRA threats, which would likely bring down the flight categories to MVFR at best, IFR at worst. Guidance shows a smaller secondary wave moving through after sunset tonight, particularly inland. Winds look to calm inland late, which may introduce fog or low stratus across KFLO and KLBT. Whatever forms should clear out by 13-15Z. Southwesterly flow continues throughout the period as high as 10-15kts in the afternoon, calming overnight. Extended Outlook...Potential for afternoon and evening MVFR/IFR from showers and thunderstorms each day. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Outside showers and storms, expect S to SW winds generally less than 15 KT with seas of 2 to 4 FT. Saturday through Tuesday... Deep summertime pattern will be in place for the marine community for the extent of the forecast. South to mostly southwest winds of 10-15 knots can be expected perhaps still a bit on the higher end of the range this weekend. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...RGZ/IGB NEAR TERM...31 SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...RGZ/IGB MARINE...SHK/31