FXUS63 KFGF 191742
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1242 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the
 weekend and into next week. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Not much on radar as cells coming down from Canada have mostly
fizzled out. However, there is some towering cu getting going in
northwestern MN and ML CAPE is rising to around 1500 J/kg in
eastern ND so expect more development shortly. Continue to have
isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm mention as we head
into this afternoon. Shear is minimal and severe development is
not expected.

UPDATE
Issued at 950 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Showers and thunderstorms that formed over Grand Forks area have
moved off to the southeast and have mostly dissipated. More
shower and thunderstorm activity is starting to move down out of
Canada. Made a few minor tweaks to POPs, but should continue to
see an overall trend of increasing coverage as we head towards
peak heating this afternoon. No severe impacts expected.

UPDATE
Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Very little in the way of shower and thunderstorm activity this
morning across the forecast area. Current development is limited
to Grand Forks County, although CAMs continue to show the
potential for more coverage through around mid morning. Overall,
the forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...Synopsis...

Ridging prevails through much of the period across the western
CONUS, with the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest residing
downstream of the ridge. North to northwest flow at the H5 level
will continue through the weekend and into next week, with little to
no support for low to mid-level moisture return into the region. As
such, we are likely to see mainly scattered showers and
thunderstorms, with little support for organized or severe
convection. Any stronger storms would be tied to diurnal heating,
but could potentially support small hail and gusty winds.

Ensemble guidance develops an upper low by the early to middle part
of next week, which could serve to help flatten the H5 pattern
heading into late next week. This remains rather uncertain at this
time, with timing being the greatest uncertainty as several ensemble
members stall the upper low before it can create any meaningful
change in the pattern. Overall, we can expect a continuation of
generally warmer than average temperatures, along with nearly daily
chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Some towering cumulus clouds could bring some scattered showers
or even some thunderstorms, mainly to the MN airports mainly
this afternoon. Not ruling out the ND side, but confidence is
lower so will leave VCSH out of the TAFs for now. Convective
activity in the area will dissipate after sunset leaving light
and variable winds and VFR conditions.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch/JR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...JR