FXUS66 KEKA 191122
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
422 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Quiet, dry, and climatologically normal weather is
forecast to continue today. Interior temperatures creep back up
into the triple digits Saturday, and there is a slight chance for
thunderstorms Saturday in Trinity county as well.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Seasonably normal temperatures continue today as
troughing persists aloft. The marine layer has compressed again
overnight, relegating low cloud toward the immediate coast and
bringing patchy fog to the coastal plain. Coastal stratus continues
for the foreseeable future, with a chance of brief clearing each
afternoon before the stratus reforms each night.

Shortwave ridging is forecast to build aloft Saturday, bringing a
return of triple-digit temperatures to Trinity and Lake counties,
with above normal afternoon temperatures persisting into early next
week. This feature is forecast to be accompanied by another push of
mid-level monsoonal moisture from the SE and be quickly followed by
a shortwave trough Saturday evening. Moisture content looks lower
than the monsoonal push last week, and model soundings across the
interior show a capped environment. Latest model guidance is
indicating a weaker cap over NE Trinity and eastern Del Norte,
primarily along the border with Siskiyou county late Saturday
afternoon and evening. These areas look like they have the best
chance for convective initiation...although while there is
potential, confidence remains low on whether storms will develop or
not. Guidance remains split on the balance of cap strength vs
instability. Moisture exits to the NE Sunday, with warm and dry
weather persisting next week.


&&

.AVIATION...A shallow layer of coastal stratus has formed over the
Redwood Coast late last night and early this morning, with LIFR
conditions at both ACV and CEC. However, a weak short wave
associated with the low pressure system off the coast of British
Columbia could help deepen the marine layer into mid morning,
possibly lifting conditions to IFR or MVFR at the coastal terminals.
Like the last couple of days, the coastal stratus has potential to
scatter or clear into the late morning or afternoon. Gusty north to
northwest winds are expected this afternoon at all terminals with
potential gusts from 20 to 25 knots, particularly for Mendocino and
Lake counties. Coastal stratus is expected to redevelop at the coast
later this evening and persist through the night.


&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds continue to increase through the southern
marine zones. In the southern outer zone, small craft conditions
continue as winds increase and cause steeper seas. South of Cape
Mendocino, northerly gusts from 25 to 30 kt are expected with steep
seas from 6 to 7 feet. Northerly winds will continue a gradual
increase through the weekend, particularly in the southern waters.
These conditions are forecast to spread into the northern zones by
the weekend, as well. Gale conditions look probable as early as
Sunday night. A small, long period SW swell will also reside in the
waters through Friday.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT
     Sunday for PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday
     for PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png