FXUS63 KEAX 192332
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
632 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...00z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic showers with an occasional thunderstorm are expected
  tonight through Tuesday. Severe weather in unlikely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Fairly straightforward forecast, unsettled weather expected
beginning tonight into early next week. Persistent trough over the
Midwest with weak shortwave troughs rotating through will promote
periodic periods of precipitation for the weekend into Tuesday.

Initial leading edge of precipitation upstream over Nebraska will
slowly dissipate as it encounters drier air. Eventually further
saturation and increasing ascent will allow for activity to move
into northwest Missouri late this evening or early tonight,
gradually spreading southeastward into Saturday. Expect breaks in
shower activity, with regeneration occurring with each passing wave,
Sunday into Tuesday. Strong to severe weather is unlikely, with the
environment characterized by meager instability and weak winds
through the column. At best, a few convective elements may promote a
few lightning strikes. As for temperatures, look for readings to
remain below normal with the clouds/showers and a cooler pocket of
H85 temps persisting with the trough. An elongated upper ridge axis
begins to build into the High Plains and Upper Midwest by middle to
late week, with temperatures beginning to return to normal to
slightly above normal levels, along with a drier pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR conditions expected through this TAF period, with a nuance
or two. Light winds primarily out of SE, but may waver more
southerly at times during daytime. Kept VCSH/RA/SHRA oriented
mentions out of this issuance with limited confidence in
spatial extent/coverage, best chances would be around/after 12z
and will be monitored for adjustments.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Curtis