FXUS65 KBOI 191028
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
428 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...Upper level ridge
will continue to strengthen over the area through the short
term with hot conditions. The hot conditions will support
unstable conditions, with isolated thunderstorms over central ID
mountains and along ID/NV border this afternoon. Excessive heat
warnings remain in effect. Temperatures will warm to near
record levels, around 10-15 degrees above normal by Sunday. A
shortwave off the CA coast will support increased chances of
thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon, especially across eastern OR
as the system moves north along the WA/OR coast. Wildfire smoke
could take a few degrees off forecast guidance, but the current
forecast used bias corrected temperatures for the past 10 days
to account for recent wildfire smoke trends.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Hot and smoky conditions
to continue over the long term, with Monday being the warmest
day of the period. The aforementioned shortwave on Sunday
afternoon will slowly move across southwest Idaho on Monday
afternoon, bringing a slight chance of thunderstorms. Lower
valleys will see near record high temperatures of 104 to 108 on
Monday, however smoke may keep temperatures a few degrees below
forecast depending on how thick the smoke is. Slightly cooler
temperatures for the remainder of the week as the flow turns
more west-southwesterly with the influence of a upper level low
over western Canada. Monsoonal moisture will keep a slight
chance of thunderstorms Tuesday through Friday over the higher
terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...Smoky with low VFR, local visibilities to MVFR/IFR.
High density altitude due to heat. Isolated thunderstorms over
central ID mountains and along ID/NV border this afternoon.
Surface winds variable 5-10kt, except W-NW 5-15kt during the
afternoon, gusts up to 25kt near KBKE KONO this evening. Storms
may produce gusty outflow winds up to 35kt.

KBOI...Smoky with low VFR. High density altitude due to heat.
Surface winds variable 5kts, becoming NW 5-10kt during the
afternoon.

Weekend Outlook...Continued smoky with reduced visibilities.
Isolated thunderstorms over central ID mountains and along
ID/NV border Sat afternoon, and over central OR and central ID
mountains Sun afternoon. Gusty erratic outflows in vicinity of
storms.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Excessive Heat Warning until midnight MDT Monday night
     IDZ012-014-033.
     Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to midnight MDT Monday night
     IDZ015-016-029-030.
OR...Excessive Heat Warning until midnight MDT /11 PM PDT/ Monday
     night ORZ063-064.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Monday ORZ061.
     Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Monday
     ORZ062.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA