FXUS63 KBIS 191451 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 951 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected today through this evening. An isolated strong storm is possible. - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible through the weekend and into Monday. Probability for severe weather is low. - Seasonable temperatures continue through the weekend, with highs in the 80s and lows near 60. && .UPDATE... Issued at 949 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Thunderstorms have have diminished over the past couple of hours with only a few lingering showers across mainly the south. We do expect some more diurnal thunderstorm development later this afternoon and a few could become strong, but weak shear will likely keep any storms from reaching severe levels. Still, some small hail and gusty winds to 55 mph will be possible under the strongest cores. No major changes were needed for this update. UPDATE Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Minimal updates needed this morning. Thunderstorms continue to develop across the southern half of ND. There remains enough instability that a few of these storms could become strong at times, although the lack of shear should limit the overall severe weather threat this morning. Small hail and gusty winds still remain possible within the stronger storms this morning. Meanwhile, clear areas in the north are reporting some patchy fog, which is also showing up on the nighttime RGB satellite product. Added in patchy fog mention in for the next few hours across these northern areas. With more widespread clearing and light winds expected tonight, added in patchy fog for tonight into Saturday morning as well for northern, central, and eastern areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Surface low will move out of the Northern Rockies today, while an upper level wave also moves across the region. This combined with modest instability and shear will bring chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the day and evening. This morning has already seen convection with the passing of the upper wave, and will continue to do so. There may be a brief break in thunderstorms early this afternoon before instability recovers and the surface low develops more thunderstorms. Shear today is overall moderate and around 30 knots. MUCAPE today is increased at times and generally around 2000 J/KG. These modest parameters could bring about an isolated strong to perhaps severe thunderstorm. SPC has kept the Marginal Risk south of us for today, with the CSU-MLP severe outlook showing a hail risk in some far southern portions of ND. That being said, a pulse like thunderstorm could bring hail up to the size of quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph. Storm motion today looks to be slow, and pwats look to be forecast towards the 90th percentile. This could bring about some heavy rain at times. Otherwise look for high temperatures to remain in the 80s today, with continued light winds. Tonight, thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish shortly after sunset. Winds will once again be light and lows will be near 60 degrees. Light winds and increased RH could lead to some patchy fog tonight, although confidence was not high enough to include at this time. For the rest of the weekend, we look to remain in this warm yet unstable pattern. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible Saturday afternoon and evening, although the lack of shear will limit any severe weather potential. A similar story is expected for Sunday, although coverage may be slightly less than Saturday. Temperatures through the weekend will remain in the 80s for highs and near 60 for lows. Winds will be light and generally northeast during the day. With a building ridge to our west bringing northerly flow aloft, some wildfire smoke could return the area this weekend. Something to monitor, yet not enough confidence to place in the forecast at this time. The broad upper level ridge could slowly nudge eastward next week as indicated by the clusters. Chances for thunderstorms may linger to start the week, although could diminish if this ridge moves more overhead. Temperature trends may also be more on the warming side depending are far east this ridge moves. Current NBM forecast returns 90s for high temps mid to late week. There is some spread in the NBM forecast though for this time period, although with clusters indicating this ridge coming overhead, confidence towards the warmer solution of these spreads is increased. Later next week this ridge may push east of the region, which could return chances for showers and thunderstorms. This is again dependent on the placement of the ridge. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be found today through this evening. Placed VCTS in sites with better chances for storms through this morning. Confidence was not high enough to place in thunderstorm mention for this afternoon and evening, although most sites have a 20 to 40% chance of thunderstorms during this time period. Thunderstorms could bring some brief MVFR as well, along with gusty winds and perhaps some small hail. Otherwise look for generally VFR conditions and light winds through the forecast period. Thunderstorm chances diminish tonight, although some patchy fog is possible into Saturday morning. Confidence was not high enough to include fog mention in the TAFs at this time. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...ZH DISCUSSION...Anglin AVIATION...Anglin