FXUS65 KGGW 080737
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
137 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) An upper level ridge will begin bringing hot temperatures by
Tuesday afternoon and lasting through the weekend. There is high
(70 percent) confidence of a few locations reaching triple digits
on Thursday.

2) There is low (20 percent) confidence of isolated thunderstorms
popping up late Thursday.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

The cold pool of air aloft on the eastern side of the ridge will
shift to the east, which will minimize the shower and thunderstorm
activity. The ridge will build in and be at its strongest on
Thursday, with triple digits expected in a few locations. Only a
few models are hinting at high-based thunderstorms on Thursday
afternoon, with low confidence with the location of the
thunderstorms. Any storms that do occur will have an opportunity
to produce a strong wind gust in regard to inverted-V model
soundings from the GFS and ECMWF. The hot temps at the surface
will help DCAPE values climb to over 1500 J/kg, so high rates of
evaporation are expected beneath any storms. This would help
strengthen downdrafts to produce gusty outflow winds. As far as
hot temps go, heat safety will play a crucial role this week more
than usual. There is little indication of any precipitation
through the weekend.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is high (100 percent) confidence that upper ridging will
bring hot temperatures that will last through the weekend. There
is low (20 percent) confidence of isolated thunderstorms occurring
on Thursday evening. The hot conditions will be monitored for the
potential of at least heat related advisory products in the
coming days.

-Zanker/Stoinskers



&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATE: 0200Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: Benign conditions with few clouds will prevail through
the cycle as high pressure builds in from the west.

DENSITY ALTITUDE may become a problem by Thursday when
temperatures reach up to 100+.

WIND: Light and variable through the cycle.

GAH


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow