FXUS66 KOTX 171203 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 503 AM PDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue each day through mid week especially up in the mountains. A warming trend is expected through the week, with high temperatures rebounding into the mid 80s to mid 90s on Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Today and Tuesday: A Low is currently traversing the Inland Northwest. It will generally bring cloudy conditions through the morning hours. By the early afternoon, the atmosphere will slowly destabilize and allow for convection. Most of the region can expect showers and isolated thunderstorms through the evening. Best potential for thunder is Northeast WA and the Northern Panhandle with around 20-30%. Spokane and Palouse have around 15-20% chance of thunderstorms. Impacts will mainly be brief downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Ensembles do indicate gusty winds for the Cascade valleys with gusts near 30 MPH during the afternoon. Temperatures will be on a warming trend with highs reaching into the 60s and low 70s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s. By Tuesday, the Low will be positioned over Montana with high pressure ridge building off the Pacific coast. It will bring a saturated northwestern flow pattern into the region. It will again another chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest. It is not as widespread as Monday. The shower activity is mainly North of Hwy 2. The best thunder potential is across the northern mountains starting late morning and lasting through the early evening. Highs will be in the upper 60s and 70s. Lows will be in the 40s to low 50s. /JDC Wednesday through Sunday: What is left of an upper trough lingers over the region on Wednesday. This combined with afternoon heating and lingering boundary layer moisture will trigger another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northern mountains. On Thursday the trough axis lingers with 500mb temps down to near -18C and thus hard to discount a couple pop up afternoon showers or thunderstorms over the mountains mainly near the Canadian border where the NBM is showing a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms. The trough finally pushes out on Friday and is replaced by a short wave ridge which persists into Saturday ahead of the next weather system. This will allow temperatures to warm up, with highs reaching the mid 80s to mid 90s on Saturday. Sunday ensembles are in good agreement that an upper low passing by to our north across Central BC will send a dry cold front across the region. The clusters are in good agreement that this will bring cooler temperatures into Central WA...but for Eastern WA/N Idaho there there is a 35% chance that Sunday will be as warm as Saturday. It will all come down to timing of the cold front and thus there is some increased uncertainty with Sunday temperatures. The warm and dry conditions combined with breezy winds will elevate fire weather concerns, but too far out to get into the details. JW && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: Mid level clouds will continue to pass through the region today. Ceilings will remain high above 6 kft with VFR conditions prevailing. Diurnal heating on Monday will result expanding showers and thunderstorms. Convection looks to form over the northern mountains earlier in the afternoon with steering flow pushing thunderstorms south into the Spokane/Coeur d'Alene corridor later in the afternoon into the early evening (after 21Z). Gusty winds near 25 kts expected along the Cascades during the afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is high confidence in continued VFR conditions. There is a 30% chance for thunderstorms at KGEG-KSFF-KCOE and a 20% chance for thunderstorms at KPUW and KLWS after Monday afternoon/evening between 21-03Z. There is a 20-30% percent chance for 30 kt wind gusts at EAT this afternoon. /JDC ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 67 43 69 45 76 49 / 30 20 40 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 64 43 64 43 74 46 / 30 40 50 10 0 0 Pullman 61 42 66 42 74 46 / 40 40 20 0 0 0 Lewiston 68 49 74 49 83 53 / 40 40 10 0 0 0 Colville 67 36 67 38 74 41 / 50 60 80 20 20 0 Sandpoint 64 42 60 41 70 44 / 50 60 90 40 20 0 Kellogg 60 45 61 45 71 48 / 50 70 70 20 10 0 Moses Lake 72 45 76 46 83 52 / 20 10 10 0 0 0 Wenatchee 70 49 76 51 80 56 / 10 10 10 0 0 0 Omak 72 45 74 47 81 51 / 40 20 30 10 10 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$