FXHW60 PHFO 161901
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
901 AM HST Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Stable, breezy trades will trend stronger and somewhat wetter as
the week progresses. Trades continue into at least early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A strong trade wind inversion sloping from around 6kft at Hilo to
8kft at Lihue is noted on this morning's observed soundings. Decent
saturation in the top half of the boundary layer of the Lihue
sounding matches the morning cloud distribution well with breezy
trades delivering ample clouds and rather limited/brief showers
windward and mauka. Trade wind weather persists through the forecast
period as the large scale pattern undergoes little in the way of
change. Building mid-level ridging over the Central Pacific Basin
will cause the surface gradient to strengthen over the islands
during the latter half of the week with locally strong trades in
place as early as Thursday. This will also allow slightly richer low-
level moisture to be drawn up from the southeast which will foster
an increase in trade wind shower coverage during the same period.
The overall trend through the week will one of stronger trades and a
greater coverage of showers, particularly windward and mauka during
the overnight and early morning hours.


&&

.AVIATION...

Moderate to breezy ENE trade winds will continue over the next
several days. Periods of MVFR conditions will be possible across
windward and mauka areas as low clouds and showers ride in on the
trades, particularly during the overnight hours when shower
coverage is expected to increase.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for tempo mountain obscuration for
windward Big Island. This AIRMET will likely be needed on and off
for windward areas across the state through at least tomorrow.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for tempo moderate low level turbulence
lee of the island terrain across the state due to breezy trade
winds under a strong tradewind inversion. This AIRMET will likely
be needed through today.

&&

.MARINE...

A high pressure ridge will remain north of the area and will
gradually strengthen through the week. As a result, the trades
are expected to become fresh to locally strong, with near gale
winds in the Alenuihaha Channel and south of the Big Island on
Wednesday. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) currently in effect for
the normally windier areas around Maui County and the Big Island
will likely continue through the week, with an expansion to
include the waters around Kauai and Oahu on Wednesday.

Surf along south facing shores will continue to slowly decline as
the south swell fades through Monday. Only background small,
medium to long period, south to southeast swell energy will move
into the region for the rest of the week.

North shore surf is expected to be small through the week, coming
from small, mainly medium period northwest swells. Surf along
east shores will become increasingly rough and choppy from
Wednesday onward as the trade winds strenghten across the state.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...Farris
MARINE...Kodama