FXHW60 PHFO 160628
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
828 PM HST Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trade wind conditions will persist through the upcoming
week. Clouds and showers will predominantly favor windward and
mauka areas overnight into the morning as areas of moisture move
through. An increase in windward shower coverage is possible from
late Monday through midweek due to an upper disturbance drifting
westward across the state. Some of these showers may briefly
extend to the dry leeward areas of the smaller islands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Guidance remains consistent, showing a strong surface ridge north
of the state throughout the upcoming week, possibly strengthening
later on. This will sustain breezy easterly trade winds with
clouds and mostly brief showers favoring windward and mauka
locations. The trade wind inversion will be situated between 6,000
and 8,000 feet, and precipitable water (PW) levels will generally
range from 1.0 to 1.25 inches. Rainfall amounts will likely be
limited, even in windward areas, except possibly during the first
half of the week when an upper-level low moves westward across
the state, drawing up more moisture.

Guidance indicates PW values increasing above average starting
Monday night through Tuesday in the eastern part of the state, and
later spreading to the western areas by Tuesday night into
midweek. While most showers during this period will favor windward
and mauka areas, some could reach leeward areas, especially
Tuesday night into Wednesday. This pattern of occasional light
showers in our typically dry leeward areas may persist into the
latter part of next week as the pressure gradient tightens,
resulting in brisk easterly trades across the islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue at least through
midweek. Low cigs and SHRA will favor windward and mauka zones.
Brief periods of MVFR conds are possible. A few SHRA may make it
to lee sides heading into Monday.

As SHRA and clouds increase AIRMET Sierra may be needed for mtn
obsc for windward locations.

AIRMET TANGO is in effect for low level turb lee of terrain due
to gusty trade winds.

&&

.MARINE...
A high pressure ridge north of the islands will keep moderate to
strong trade winds blowing across the Hawaii region. A Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the windier channels
and waters around Maui County and the Big Island through the
weekend. This SCA for the windier waters may continue into much of
next week.

Surf along south facing shores will remain at High Surf Advisory
thresholds through tonight. Surf heights will continue to
decrease as the swell fades during the next few days. Only
background small, medium to long period, south to southeast swell
energy will move into the region for the rest of next week.

North shore surf will see only small medium period northwest
pulses providing a tiny bump into middle of next week. Surf along
east shores will remain small and choppy each day due to continued
trade winds.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Niihau-Kauai
Leeward-Waianae Coast-Kahoolawe-Maui Leeward West-Kona-Kauai
South-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Molokai Leeward
South-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley South-South
Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala-Big Island South-Big Island
Southeast.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&
$$

DISCUSSION...Gibbs
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Bohlin