FXUS66 KMTR 160951 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 251 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Dry and windy with elevated fire concerns into early next week. Seasonal temps and quiet weather midweek. Potential warming trend for late next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024 (Today and tonight) Satellite fog product shows clear skies over much of California. It's June, where is the coastal stratus? For a few days now, we've been talking about pressure gradients leading to stronger winds and drier air. That continues to be the case again tonight into Sunday. No major change to the overall synoptic pattern - an upper low remains near the PacNW and broad upper level ridging remains over Baja/E Central Pacific. The Bay Area and Central Coast remain sandwiched in the middle. Speaking of gradients, the N-S gradients was over -8mb earlier tonight. Anything greater than -7mb is usually a good stratus eraser. The stronger northerly flow happens to be ushering in drier air as well, which is also contributing to less clouds. Latest 24 hr trends continue to indicated RH values in some area 5 to 40 percent drier than last night. Not expecting much of a change in the overall sensible weather over the next 24 hours. Max temps today will be in the uppers to lower 70s for the coast/bays and upper 60s to near 90 across the interior. Winds will be breezy through the afternoon, especially along the coast and any inland gap/pass. Do expect another burst of stronger winds later this evening and overnight as the upper low tightens and moves SE toward the Great Basin. Still not strong enough/widespread for a Wind Advisory, but the marine environment will remain hazardous with very pronounced coastal jets. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 240 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024 (Monday through Saturday) To begin the work week temperatures hold steady or cool a few degrees in response to a passing upper level trough. Either way, still seasonably cool for mid-June. One final day of breezy northerly flow as well, before winds finally ease Monday night into Tuesday with weakening pressure gradients. A subtle warming trend begins midweek before a more notable warm up impacts California in the extended. Confidence continues to increase as longer range probabilistic tools and ensemble guidance show ridging with interior heat. Still several days out, but impactful heat will return to the interior by next Friday and linger through the weekend. HeatRisk guidance continues to trend upward with more interior portions reaching the Moderate category. Will need to keep an eye on this as the forecast becomes more clear. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1023 PM PDT Sat Jun 15 2024 VFR conditions throughout the region, generally through the TAF period. Model output has some probability of stratus development tonight at the immediate coast and the Monterey Bay region, but confidence is low and strong winds aloft may keep the skies clear through the night. Northwest winds will abate at the terminals, but will remain breezy through the night before strong northwest winds with gusts up to 20 to 30 knots resume Sunday afternoon. Marginal LLWS concerns will develop on Sunday evening along the coastal ranges as the surface layer decouples, but confidence is too low to include it in the TAFs. Vicinity of SFO... VFR through the TAF period. West-northwest winds will remain breezy and gusty overnight with intense gusts returning on Sunday afternoon. Moderate confidence that gusts at SFO will exceed 35 knots sometime on Sunday. Additional TAF updates will take newer model guidance into account. Marginal LLWS concerns develop on Sunday evening close to the end of the TAF period. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... Model output shows some probability of IFR ceilings developing in the region later tonight, but confidence is low and the TAFs remain VFR throughout. Onshore winds will remain breezy through the night before becoming strong on Sunday afternoon && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 849 PM PDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A tight pressure gradient over the waters continues to allow for strong northwest breezes and widespread gale force gusts to persist through the weekend. Significant wave heights will reach 12-17 feet through the weekend before beginning to decrease Monday. Hazardous conditions will linger into the first half of next week as winds remain strong. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 AM PDT Sun Jun 15 2024 ...Elevated Fire Weather Conditions Through The Weekend... *Breezy to gusty northerly winds, especially higher terrain *Lowering relative humidity values day and night It goes without saying, but elevated fire weather conditions remain over the district. Yesterday was a prime example of dry northerly flow with receptive fine fuels. The Hernandez Fire burned in San Benito county. One can still see a little be of heat on the satellite imagery. Expect more of the same today with grass fires being the biggest concern. It's Father's Day and you may have outdoor plans - like a BBQ. Just be mindful about any open flame and don't be that "spark" to start the next fire. MM && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Monday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Mry Bay. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0- 10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM....MM AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea