ABNT20 KNHC 162311
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of disturbed weather is located over Central America,
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico.  A broad
area of low pressure is forecast to form from this system over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico within the next day or so.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for subsequent gradual
development of the low, and a tropical depression or tropical storm
is likely to form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward toward the western Gulf coast.

Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and
these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash
flooding.  Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over
portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the
middle of the week.  In addition, gale warnings have been issued
for portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on
those warnings is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
A trough or an area of low pressure is forecast to form a few
hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas in a couple of days.
Environmental conditions could be conducive for some development of
this system thereafter while it moves westward or west-
northwestward.  The system is forecast to approach the coast of the
southeast United States on Thursday or Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brown