ABNT20 KNHC 161736
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of disturbed weather is located over Central America,
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. A broad area of low pressure is
forecast to form from this system over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico on Monday or Tuesday.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for subsequent gradual development of the low, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm could form by midweek while
it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.

Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and
these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash
flooding.  Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over
portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the
middle of the week.  In addition, gale warnings have been issued
for portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on these
is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
A trough or an area of low pressure is forecast to form by midweek
a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas. Environmental
conditions could be conducive for some development of this system
thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Beven