ACUS11 KWNS 152027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152027
MTZ000-152230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1272
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Areas affected...central and eastern Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 152027Z - 152230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms have begun to show signs of upscale growth across
parts of central Montana.  Risk for damaging wind gusts should
gradually increase, possibly requiring eventual WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery shows that storms just east of
Great Falls have exhibited some upscale growth in the past hour, as
continued heating/weak destabilization combined with low-level
southeasterly flow impinges on eastward-moving outflow.  The latest
Great Falls (KFTX) WSR-88D even suggests some evidence of a weak
mesolow crossing northern Chouteau County.

While storms are occurring with the axis of relatively greater
instability at this time, with slightly less unstable, more capped
environment still evident in central Montana, short-term prospects
for convective intensity remain somewhat uncertain.  Still, with
instability increasing farther east, over eastern Montana, it would
seem that coverage/intensity of convection will likely become such
that WW issuance will need to be considered.  Though timing of this
potential need for a watch remains uncertain, we will continue to
closely monitor the evolving situation across central Montana.

..Goss/Gleason.. 06/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   48090907 48670836 49000579 48480437 46530485 45740845
            46030958 48090907