FXUS66 KOTX 091122 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 422 AM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak weather system will pass through on Sunday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Above normal temperatures will continue though much of the week, with cooler temperatures by late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today and Tonight: Clouds are increasing across the Cascades and southern Washington ahead of a trough passage later this afternoon. Cloud cover will increase region wide through the morning with some sprinkles or very light rain possible. CAM models are showing shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon. Through early afternoon the best chance of thunder will be across the north Cascades and then the thunder threat will expand across much of the region by mid to late afternoon. There is a 15-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms across the the Columbia Basin and onto the Palouse and Spokane/CdA area. Most other locations have a 20-30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, with the mountains having a 30-50% chance of showers. The showers and thunderstorms will move east through the day as the trough pushes through the region. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the evening hours, especially across NE WA and the N ID Panhandle. Thunderstorms that do develop will have lightning, small hail and gusty winds associated with them. At this time, storms are not expected to be strong. Monday: The trough exits and a shortwave ridge builds in. With mostly sunny skies our temperatures will warm into the upper 70s and 80s, which is still 8 to 10 degrees above average. There is a 20-30 percent chance of showers and a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon across north Idaho...mainly Sandpoint northward. Southwest to west winds will pick up in the afternoon 10 to 15 mph with gusts 15 to 25 mph across the typical breezy spots...Wenatchee area eastward on the Columbia Basin, Palouse and Spokane area. /Nisbet Tuesday through Saturday: A shortwave slides through the region early Tuesday that will bring increased cloud cover and breezy winds. This shortwave will be mainly dry, with the best chance of shower being over the Cascade crest and far northeastern mountains in WA. As the shortwave is moving through, the upper jet will also be positioned be over the PacNW, with speeds in excess of 100 kts. All of this will allow for gusts 30 to 40 mph, with gusts up to 45 mph in the Waterville Plateau and northern half of the Columbia Basin. The winds combined with dry air does bring some early fire weather concerns to the region on Tuesday. A ridge will begin to build back in for Wednesday and Thursday, drying the region out yet again. Breezy conditions will continue but will be lighter than Tuesdays winds with gusts of 20 to 35 mph. Another trough will move through Friday but ensembles are having trouble narrowing down the exact timing. Temperatures will trend slightly below normal along with this system will be on the drier side as well, with precipitation remaining confined to the mountains. Winds will also increase as the pressure gradient tightens, with breezy conditions returning for the weekend. /KM && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. An incoming weather system is bringing an increase in mid to high level clouds from the south. This will bring a 20 to 30 percent chance for showers to the region after 18Z. Thunderstorms will begin in the Cascades and down around the Blues and then spread east and north through the mid to late afternoon as the weather system moves across region. The main concern with thunderstorms that develop will be gusty outflow winds with gusts of 25-35 kts, lightning, brief downpours, and small hail. The probabilities for thunderstorms to move over a TAF site are too low (less than 25% probability) to include in the TAFs at this moment, but do have mention of mention of showers, which carries slightly higher confidence. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence remains high for VFR conditions through Sunday afternoon, except for localized restrictions under any thunderstorms that develop. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 80 54 81 53 81 47 / 20 20 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 79 54 78 52 78 47 / 20 20 0 0 0 0 Pullman 75 52 75 51 78 47 / 20 20 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 84 60 86 58 88 55 / 20 20 0 0 0 0 Colville 80 48 81 48 80 42 / 30 30 10 0 20 0 Sandpoint 77 52 75 51 75 45 / 20 30 10 0 10 10 Kellogg 78 56 73 55 74 49 / 20 20 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 86 55 88 54 86 48 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 83 58 84 58 80 52 / 30 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 85 54 88 53 84 48 / 30 20 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$