FXUS66 KMTR 080725 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1225 AM PDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 336 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Cooling continues through the weekend, with temperatures largely near seasonal averages. Warming returns early next week as ridging redevelops, though not expecting temperatures to reach as high as they did the last few days. && .UPDATE... Issued at 853 PM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024 The short term forecast is in good shape with just some minor tweaks to overnight wind grids for some of the East Bay Hills/Mountains, as well as across coastal waters (including the northern part of the San Francisco/San Pablo Bay areas). Flow this evening along the shoreline remained quite brisk, especially along the Marin Headlands up toward Bodega Bay. In fact, the Bodega Bay Profiler indicates around 35 knots of flow around 1km. Whether or not this momentum mixes down to the surface is a little uncertain, however, some of the short-term guidance (e.g., HRRR) suggests this is a possibility. Winds across some of the coastal waters---from Bodega Bay down through the Golden Gate Gap were adjusted upward to the 75th NBM percentile. Winds appear that they'll channel through the Golden Gate Gap and accelerate through portions of the SF and San Pablo Bays, as well as the west Delta. East Bay Hills and Mountains may also be recipients of this accelerated flow. The 75th percentile NBM numbers translate to 20 to 30 mph wind gusts later tonight into the pre-dawn hours on Saturday morning. The impact will be rough boating conditions for small craft as well as an increased potential for any loose outdoor articles (trash cans, lawn furniture) to be blown about in the wind. The rest of the forecast remains in good shape and updated products have been transmitted. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 218 PM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Low stratus clouds continue to linger along the coastline with some sunshine occasionally breaking through this afternoon. Clear skies farther inland have allowed temperatures to climb into the 70s and 80s, with some higher elevations to the east and south in the 90s with breezy west/southwest surface winds. An upper level ridge axis will shift east across our area for the remainder of today and tonight while an upper trough deepens over the open water to our west. The upper trough will produce increasing mid/high clouds tomorrow afternoon helping to cool temperatures a few degrees inland, while low stratus clouds persist keeping temperatures along the coast in the 60s. The slow moving upper trough will result in similar conditions on Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 218 PM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024 The aforementioned slow moving upper trough eventually shifts east by early Monday morning, while a cutoff low splits off from the southern portion of the trough over the southeast Pacific. There's some uncertainty in the synoptic longwave pattern across our area, depending on how the cutoff low evolves over the weekend. The warming trend for the middle of next week and beyond remains in the forecast but the max temperatures have trended slightly lower. The warmer temperatures peak on Wednesday, with a gradual cooling trend for late in the week as the cutoff low begins to move onshore across SOCAL. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 PM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024 MVFR and IFR CIGs are moving inland affecting most of the TAF sites overnight and into Saturday morning with some areas along the coast and in the Monterey seeing CIGs into Saturday afternoon. Pockets of haze look to continue to affect the region through much of Saturday in spite of moderate to breezy winds through the afternoon and evening. Winds reduce into Saturday night as stratus moves slightly inland once again. Vicinity of SFO...MVFR lasts through the late morning. Winds stay moderate through the night and begin to increase into Saturday afternoon as CIGs dissipate, with gusts peaking around 25 kts. Portions of the SF Bay may still be affected my reduced visibility from haze, but it becomes less likely into the afternoon. Expect winds to reduce in the late evening, but stay moderate through Saturday night. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR-LIFR CIGS are expected through he late morning before CIGs lift to MVFR levels into the afternoon before dissipating. Winds stay light to moderate overnight with some pockets of mist and drizzle affecting the terminals. Winds increase in the mid afternoon as VFR returns, but haze could still affect local visibility. Weaker winds and lower clouds return Saturday evening. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1126 PM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Overcast conditions continue over the inner coastal waters with low level stratus becoming more widespread overnight. Potential for patchy fog and light drizzle continues through tomorrow morning, particularly within the Monterey Bay and Big Sur regions, which may cause temporarily reduced visibilities. Widespread fresh to strong northwesterly gusts will develop over the northern coastal waters over the weekend and gradually extend farther southward as an upper level disturbance moves inland. Significant wave heights build throughout the weekend with wave heights peaking between 12 to 14 feet. Elevated wave heights and gusty conditions will create hazardous conditions for small crafts that will continue through the weekend and into the following work week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea