ACUS11 KWNS 082038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082038 KSZ000-COZ000-082245- Mesoscale Discussion 1204 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Areas affected...a small portion of eastern Colorado and western Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398... Valid 082038Z - 082245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398 continues. SUMMARY...A significant severe wind swath possibly beginning around 2230 UTC and spreading east-southeast through 01 UTC into far western KS is forecast. Peak gusts within the evolving severe linear cluster of storms are expected to range from 75-90 mph. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis indicates a moist axis extending westward from western KS into eastern CO near the I-70 corridor. Burlington, CO ASOS (KITR) shows temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s with a lower 60s dewpoint. Modifying the 19 UTC model RAP model run valid for 20 UTC at the nearest forecast sounding location (Goodland, KS) for the Burlington, CO observed surface conditions, yields around 3000 J/kg SBCAPE. Furthermore, the wind profile shows an elongated but "m-shaped" hodograph which will favor precipitation seeding with initially cellular storms currently located north through southwest of the Limon, CO vicinity as of 2030 UTC. As this storm activity moves into a slightly more moist airmass and cold pool development matures, expecting an evolution into a more linear storm mode and increasing severe-gust potential. Several recent time-lagged HRRR model runs support the notion of this corridor being the most favorable for severe gusts. Steep lapse rates and evaporatively cooled downdrafts, coupled with more than adequate mid-level westerly flow, will support severe gusts potentially peaking in the 75-90 mph range during the 2230-0100 UTC period. ..Smith.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 39520126 39190111 38820119 38510143 38410182 38850306 39070310 39380299 39710271 39810227 39520126