ACUS11 KWNS 022102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022102
MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-022300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1134
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

Areas affected...central and eastern South Dakota into far western
Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 022102Z - 022300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storm development is forecast to occur in the next 1 to 2
hours across central and into eastern South Dakota.  New WW issuance
may be required.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery hints at an increase
in the cu field across parts of southern and eastern South Dakota,
south to the Nebraska/South Dakota border.  This is in line with
HRRR output, with recent runs consistent in depicting storm
development across this area by 02/22Z to 03/23Z, with the
moderately unstable (2000 to 3000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) environment
observed across this area.  While not excessively strong, flow aloft
does veer/increase with height across the area, providing shear
sufficient for organized/rotating storms.  As such, expect potential
for very large hail and locally damaging wind gusts to evolve.
Assuming development occurs as expected areally/temporally, new WW
may be needed in the next hour or so.

..Goss.. 06/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   45929695 45949606 45319538 43599650 42980000 43570119
            44540154 45289962 45929695