ACUS11 KWNS 021953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021952
KSZ000-COZ000-022145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1130
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

Areas affected...east-central and southeastern Colorado into western
Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 021952Z - 022145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms -- initially developing over the
southeastern Colorado area -- may require WW consideration.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows TCU/CB
development near and east of the Raton Mesas vicinity of
southeastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico.  The convection
is evolving on the western fringe of a north-south axis of 2000 to
3000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE, and within an area of increasing
large-scale UVV associated with a southwestern Colorado vort max,
evident in water-vapor imagery.

Mid-level flow across the discussion area remains somewhat weaker
than areas both north and south, and as such, storms should remain
somewhat-less organized.  This, combined with the isolated coverage
of stronger storms that is currently expected, suggests that overall
severe risk should remain somewhat localized.  Still, potential for
large hail, and damaging wind gusts aided by evaporative potential
within the deep surface-based mixed layer, suggests that WW issuance
may need to be considered over the next 1 to 2 hours.

..Goss/Smith.. 06/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   37010316 38070295 39100257 39610163 39770023 39509973
            37149980 37010316